cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It has to be in jest. If people are really bothered by this, they need to have their heads examined. i would say if your not bothered by this ....then you should have your head examined. A early to mid december pattern going from stormy with cold available ......to above normal with a glancing shot or two....is not something that should have you whistling and twiddling your thumbs. There a whole range of human emotions and there are plenty of people who are a LITTLE let down by this. And this is certainly a rationale response. Sure we have more threats .....big consolation you will always have more threats down the road. again no train wreck ....just a little let down as IMO every snow lover should have been over the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 75-100 trees down regionwide? Just in Moosup CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 i would say if your not bothered by this ....then you should have your head examined. A early to mid december pattern going from stormy with cold available ......to above normal with a glancing shot or two....is not something that should have you whistling and twiddling your thumbs. There a whole range of human emotions and there are plenty of people who are a LITTLE let down by this. And this is certainly a rationale response. Sure we have more threats .....big consolation you will always have more threats down the road. Well hold on a sec. It's more like a late November/early December time. No where near mid December yet. And yes, you should not be bothered by this. If it's Christmas and it looks like this, than yeah we have a reason to be concerned I suppose. Who ever said this would be a blockbuster winter? If it hovers around normal, then we're right on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Just in Moosup CT. no leaves no trees down but I am sure the billion leaves that I raked for weeks will all blow back from the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Who ever said this would be a blockbuster winter? If it hovers around normal, then we're right on track. heavy heavy pete 2k said big winter coming. i took his word and please stop saying that nobody should be "bothered" i guess it's semantics but any snow lover should be a LITTLE let down . I am not talking about the season..LOL .i am talking about the period late nov to early dec. I will still smile today and look at the models. If you don't want to be let down by this period losing potential (again late nov-early dec NOT the WINTER) then that is your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The people in here who have basically done the best with presenting their thoughts are Will, Phil, Scott, Nate, and Typhoon Tip when he was chimed in. I don't see how anyone can be attacked for presenting their thoughts with data. Look at the ones who have done the attacking and claiming oh this will be great, this will be epic...blah, blah...none of them have backed up anything they've said with any data. The issue I believe people have with Nate is his use of absolutes in presenting his opinion. I believe I saw quotes from Will, Scott, Phil, Ray, Pete and I stating the same. I presented a winter outlook explaining my reasoning, just because he has a different opinion than I, does not mean I disparage him. I just take his posts as overly brash, self promoting and cocky. His reasoning and use of analogs is very intelligent and certainly a good effort. You certainly are in his camp with the constant use of La Nina and raging Pac flow, time will tell what transpires, but there are no absolutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 heavy heavy pete 2k said big winter coming. i took his word and please stop saying that nobody should be "bothered" i guess it's semantics but any snow lover should be a LITTLE let down . I am not talking about the season..LOL .i am talking about the period late nov to early dec. I will still smile today and look at the models. If you don't want to be let down by this period losing potential (again late nov-early dec NOT the WINTER) then that is your opinion. Well of course I want to see snow...everyone does. But, I'm not all bothered by this..as if it were some guarantee that we would get buried during this time,only to be taken away abruptly. When it looked a little more shaky last week, I started getting a little nervous, but it was impossible to say if we would trend warmer since the upper levels did not look all that bad. It's late November after all...I'm used to seeing my first inch by mid to late December. It's not a big deal to me, but I guess it is to some who think that December will be our only wintry month. This is not like a KU event modeled and then all of the sudden turns to a driving rainstorm 48 hours out. This was a pattern that held a lot of promise, but Will, Phil Ryan and myself must have said hundreds of times that we aren't guaranteed anything. The pattern looks to continue through mid December possibly and as that happens, our odds will increase. Give it a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Good news--the fog has finally lifted!!! First time since before dawn yesterday. Bad news: it's raining. 48.1/47, .02" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well of course I want to see snow...everyone does. But, I'm not all bothered by this..as if it were some guarantee that we would get buried during this time,only to be taken away abruptly. When it looked a little more shaky last week, I started getting a little nervous, but it was impossible to say if we would trend warmer since the upper levels did not look all that bad. It's late November after all...I'm used to seeing my first inch by mid to late December. It's not a big deal to me, but I guess it is to some who think that December will be our only wintry month. This is not like a KU event modeled and then all of the sudden turns to a driving rainstorm 48 hours out. This was a pattern that held a lot of promise, but Will, Phil Ryan and myself must have said hundreds of times that we aren't guaranteed anything. The pattern looks to continue through mid December possibly and as that happens, our odds will increase. Give it a chance. I do not understand the whole Dec will be the only good month thought process. This is a typical Eastern/American WX start to winter posting. Anyone doubt me look at last TDay week posts from Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 i would say if your not bothered by this ....then you should have your head examined. A early to mid december pattern going from stormy with cold available ......to above normal with a glancing shot or two....is not something that should have you whistling and twiddling your thumbs. There a whole range of human emotions and there are plenty of people who are a LITTLE let down by this. And this is certainly a rationale response. Sure we have more threats .....big consolation you will always have more threats down the road. again no train wreck ....just a little let down as IMO every snow lover should have been over the last couple days. you're out of your mind. was there ever a single *LEGIT* snow threat actually modeled? think long and hard. did any one of us say it will snow on such and such a date? the cliff jumping is a direct result of a horrendous misinterpretation of the information provided by a lot of us. This is no where close to being in the middle of winter and being 3 days out of a blockbuster event and having the rug pulled out from underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The issue I believe people have with Nate is his use of absolutes in presenting his opinion. I believe I saw quotes from Will, Scott, Phil, Ray, Pete and I stating the same. I presented a winter outlook explaining my reasoning, just because he has a different opinion than I, does not mean I disparage him. I just take his posts as overly brash, self promoting and cocky. His reasoning and use of analogs is very intelligent and certainly a good effort. You certainly are in his camp with the constant use of La Nina and raging Pac flow, time will tell what transpires, but there are no absolutes. I don't really find him to be cocky or self promoting though, he just has great confidence in his forecast and his calls and I'm quite sure if it becomes apparent that his calls are going to bust or are busting he will be the first one to admit so. Until you see this happen though you have to be confident when you make a forecast and you have to stick by it and that's really what he's doing. He's not saying that this is exactly going to happen and that everyone who doesn't agree with him will be wrong. He's just backing up his thoughts with the way he sees things. Is his way of presenting it perfect? No. Is anyone's way of presenting their thoughts perfect? No. Considering his latest thoughts on things are actually going against what his forecast was for December I also don't think he's trying to be self promoting. I am in the same camp as him as far as the La Nina and raging Pac flow goes and as of now I still stand by my thoughts of that screwing us, especially as we go through the winter, however, I'm also keeping an open mind in the sense that if we do indeed see a raging -NAO than things will bode much better for all of us and we may see something like 1970-1971 transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 52/48 Steady rain. Looks like NW Ma. gets the most qpf out of this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well of course I want to see snow...everyone does. But, I'm not all bothered by this..as if it were some guarantee that we would get buried during this time,only to be taken away abruptly. When it looked a little more shaky last week, I started getting a little nervous, but it was impossible to say if we would trend warmer since the upper levels did not look all that bad. It's late November after all...I'm used to seeing my first inch by mid to late December. It's not a big deal to me, but I guess it is to some who think that December will be our only wintry month. This is not like a KU event modeled and then all of the sudden turns to a driving rainstorm 48 hours out. This was a pattern that held a lot of promise, but Will, Phil Ryan and myself must have said hundreds of times that we aren't guaranteed anything. The pattern looks to continue through mid December possibly and as that happens, our odds will increase. Give it a chance. what did people think was going to happen??? were we going to go into the ice box on thanksgiving day and not touch freezing again until april? if we rewind a bit here and go back to the beginning of november when all of this talk started, all that was being pointed out was that there were signals coming for a fairly large shift in the NH pattern (which is without a doubt happening). it looked like the pattern would go from a quasi +AO/+NAO/+EPO trifecta (which if carried straight through the winter would probably not be the best for SNE snows ) to a set-up that would be more favorable for getting some cold and snow into New England. That's it. That's all that was said. Some dates were thrown out and a fair level of confidence was applied to the post-thanksgiving period for wintry weather. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm bored,looking forward to getting Novie over. Climo is starting to turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 52/48 Steady rain. Looks like NW Ma. gets the most qpf out of this line. You always say you jackpot on the rain. Up to 49.2, sun breaking through it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Radio shows featuring DT in the pinned topic. What are the odds they have a radio show for a late blooming Miller B that concentrates on NE. I would say 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Were the showers that passed through the cold front? With the clouds thinning, I'm wondering if it was. If so, how long until the cooler air begins to advect? I'm hoping for a big bust (wide open one there) on my temps. 49.4/48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I don't really find him to be cocky or self promoting though, he just has great confidence in his forecast and his calls and I'm quite sure if it becomes apparent that his calls are going to bust or are busting he will be the first one to admit so. Until you see this happen though you have to be confident when you make a forecast and you have to stick by it and that's really what he's doing. He's not saying that this is exactly going to happen and that everyone who doesn't agree with him will be wrong. He's just backing up his thoughts with the way he sees things. Is his way of presenting it perfect? No. Is anyone's way of presenting their thoughts perfect? No. Considering his latest thoughts on things are actually going against what his forecast was for December I also don't think he's trying to be self promoting. violently agree some just pile on him to defend the mets (who i love) but it seems like they (some) are going for brownie points at times. But all in all this board is the best weather board on the net hands down not even close really. Now to the weather.....pretty strong temperature change headed this way.....60's to low 40's and WINDY. 0c's dont really torch to late next monday .....although they moderate friday for a time......nice little cold period comin up. No snow for most....but i hope wa wa can blow it late tonite. and obv. wed nite/ fri nite/ sat nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Were the showers that passed through the cold front? With the clouds thinning, I'm wondering if it was. If so, how long until the cooler air begins to advect? I'm hoping for a big bust (wide open one there) on my temps. 49.4/48 you and pete are torch proof....(knock on rev. wood) what was your point and click and no the cold front is back disecting NY state NE/SW look at it on this wonderful visible loop http://aviationweath...t_big&itype=vis looks to swing thru your neck of the woods around 630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Were the showers that passed through the cold front? With the clouds thinning, I'm wondering if it was. If so, how long until the cooler air begins to advect? I'm hoping for a big bust (wide open one there) on my temps. 49.4/48 http://spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 violently agree some just pile on him to defend the mets (who i love) but it seems like they (some) are going for brownie points at times. But all in all this board is the best weather board on the net hands down not even close really. Now to the weather.....pretty strong temperature change headed this way.....60's to low 40's and WINDY. 0c's dont really torch to late next monday .....although they moderate friday for a time......nice little cold period comin up. No snow for most....but i hope wa wa can blow it late tonite. and obv. wed nite/ fri nite/ sat nite. Everytime someone gives thoughts about winter being potentially bad or anything to do with the words "lack of cold" or "lack of snow" they are going to get jumped on. People will also always say "oh it's early" or "the pattern will change in 7-10 days" then they back it up further...and further. People will just always listen to and praise those who offer thoughts that everyone likes. It;s just the way it goes, if so and so says this period will be great with cold and snow everyone will be on him like flies....then two weeks later he could say this period will suck with warmth and those same people will be ripping him apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 violently agree some just pile on him to defend the mets (who i love) but it seems like they (some) are going for brownie points at times. This ain't high school, who cares about brownie points, why anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 you and pete are torch proof....(knock on rev. wood) what was your point and click and no the cold front is back disecting NY state NE/SW look at it on this wonderful visible loop http://aviationweath...t_big&itype=vis looks to swing thru your neck of the woods around 630 Point and click was 62*. Currently 49.3 off of 49.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 http://spc.noaa.gov/...r.php?sector=16 I throught it might be that second round. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Oh Kevin, get back off the chair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 if 18z nam trend is right weekend would be about 5F cooler IMO just takes bowling ball about 100 miles further S/SSE on it's path across N'ern CONUS lowering heights for all -9c 850's down to dobbs ferry. but no consistency yet.....will be an interesting side note to follow later. looks more like a rn to sn event also for VT/NH and parts of W. MA rain to snow showes /sn- pete / MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 if 18z nam trend is right weekend would be about 5F cooler IMO just takes bowling ball about 100 miles further S/SSE on it's path across N'ern CONUS lowering heights for all -9c 850's down to dobbs ferry. but no consistency yet.....will be an interesting side note to follow later. looks more like a rn to sn event also for VT/NH and parts of W. MA rain to snow showes /sn- pete / MPM Lol. WRT snow, hope spring eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Holy fog machine! Down to about 300' visibility in my neighborhood right now. 49.5/48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Point and click was 62*. Currently 49.3 off of 49.5. Predicted high of 61F here. Currently 58.4/50 off a high of 60. Its weird with it dark at 5, bare trees, it "looks" like it would be 30* not 60* haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The issue I believe people have with Nate is his use of absolutes in presenting his opinion. I believe I saw quotes from Will, Scott, Phil, Ray, Pete and I stating the same. I presented a winter outlook explaining my reasoning, just because he has a different opinion than I, does not mean I disparage him. I just take his posts as overly brash, self promoting and cocky. His reasoning and use of analogs is very intelligent and certainly a good effort. You certainly are in his camp with the constant use of La Nina and raging Pac flow, time will tell what transpires, but there are no absolutes. I don't really agree... I think when you make a forecast, you've got to see confident until its obvious you are going to be wrong. Nate thinks its going to be warm and makes sure people know that. Folks on this board don't like to be constantly reminded that it might be a warm winter... its late November and most would rather go to sleep dreaming of feet of snow instead of 45F rain. I find the issues most have with him is that since he is going with a warm winter, he is certainly harping the warm/mild side of things, which weenies really, really, really do not like. No one likes to have it pointed out that what was looking cold is now looking warm. I mean, Ginx buddy, you are always on the cold side of things like Pete and Jerry...always wishing eternal for snow and a colder solution... obviously you and NZucker won't see eye to eye, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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