Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looking at the CPC analogs rolled forward 3 weeks, the pattern may be tough to break quickly. This is what the pattern should look like in mid December if there is any truth to this Some very interesting snow events near those dates, check here http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Nice work Paul. Glad to see you putting more time toward forecasting and a little less time cutting and pasteing Miley pictures to the walls of the Hannah Montana shrine in your bedroom. Keep up the good work. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I don't like all the talk from HM, Brian, Gibbs of a mid December torch for weeks. I was thinking Dec. would be cold and snowy all month before Jan got warm grinchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Nice work Paul. Glad to see you putting more time toward forecasting and a little less time cutting and pasteing Miley pictures to the walls of the Hannah Montana shrine in your bedroom. Keep up the good work. Seriously. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looking at the CPC analogs rolled forward 3 weeks, the pattern may be tough to break quickly. This is what the pattern should look like in mid December if there is any truth to this Where do you find the CPC analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Where do you find the CPC analogs? http://www.cpc.ncep....comp_sup814.gif Of course, the analogs only work if the GFS ensembles are accurate. However, they have been in pretty decent agreement with the EC ensembles so I think there is higher than normal confidence for this two week period coming up in getting the general theme correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Where do you find the CPC analogs? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/analog.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Personally I do not think it is out of the ordinary to have a 6-10 ten day warm up in Dec. I also see where all of them have NE in the ?? area, are we north of the gradient, they seem to think so. You hyped up what they were saying big time., but whatever, time will tell. No need to worry about a month from now. true story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Wow the 18z GFS is bringing down the arctic hammer !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Wow the 18z GFS is bringing down the arctic hammer !! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKlPKsJ2Vj0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 true story. Huge torch coming after mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Is there a way on twisterdata to get the GFS to cycle through automatically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 thanksgiving weekend looks frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 If you roll the analog map I posted forward another week, it definitely looks like a milder period, but then after that, it looks like we go into a huge -NAO/-PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 If you roll the analog map I posted forward another week, it definitely looks like a milder period, but then after that, it looks like we go into a huge -NAO/-PNA pattern. hmmm I wonder what would win out? -NAO or -PNA??? what's the EPO look like? How - is the PNA? How - is the NAO?? I'll gander and say the -PNA wins out...huge gradient over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Huge torch coming after mid December. LOL. it's not even worth worrying about anyway. at least warmer in mid or late december can still support frozen precip in places anyway. was it 03-04 that for weeks it looked like that brutal pattern would relent and it just never did? i think it was feb 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I know Tacoman25 has said this and maybe there is a significance, but I have seen few..if any 80's and 90's showing up in the analog charts. Old school Nina FTW?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 hmmm I wonder what would win out? -NAO or -PNA??? what's the EPO look like? How - is the PNA? How - is the NAO?? I'll gander and say the -PNA wins out...huge gradient over New England. -NAO/-PNA winters are usually kind to our area. 1955-1956 1961-1962 1964-1965 1965-1966 1967-1968 1968-1969 1970-1971 1978-1979 (this one sucked for us) 1981-1982 2008-2009 You can see how common they were back in the 1960s...much rarer now but we may be going back to that type of regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I wish we had that last year. No PV, and instead cold was forced into the Plains and then south. At least this is ripping the PV into se Canada. Advantage of a Nina over Nino. PV is much more likely to be strong/cold and when blocking forces it south....look out, major cold/storminess for northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Huge -NAO and -PNA could mean bigs snows in the northern half of NE I would think, and more marginal in southern NE, but maybe a very fun battle zone. Basically south of NY/NE it would be a hopeless pattern. hmmm I wonder what would win out? -NAO or -PNA??? what's the EPO look like? How - is the PNA? How - is the NAO?? I'll gander and say the -PNA wins out...huge gradient over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Huge -NAO and -PNA could mean bigs snows in the northern half of NE I would think, and more marginal in southern NE, but maybe a very fun battle zone. Basically south of NY/NE it would be a hopeless pattern. Almost all -NAO/-PNA winters have been above avg snowfall in SNE...the lone exception is '78-'79 which ironically was good in the M.A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I don't like all the talk from HM, Brian, Gibbs of a mid December torch for weeks. I was thinking Dec. would be cold and snowy all month before Jan got warm Just keep this in mind....none of them foresaw this big -EPO/-NAO pattern that is about to dump major cold in to the CONUS (or if they did, they made no mention of it). Just look at the old threads from the past month on the old easternusw site. Though to his credit, HM has hinted for awhile that he thought late November would be a good period for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 -NAO/-PNA winters are usually kind to our area. 1955-1956 1961-1962 1964-1965 1965-1966 1967-1968 1968-1969 1970-1971 1978-1979 (this one sucked for us) 1981-1982 2008-2009 You can see how common they were back in the 1960s...much rarer now but we may be going back to that type of regime. Wow...that isn't a bad list at all, except for the year you pointed out. I guess I could be happy with any of those years. Huge -NAO and -PNA could mean bigs snows in the northern half of NE I would think, and more marginal in southern NE, but maybe a very fun battle zone. Basically south of NY/NE it would be a hopeless pattern. Yeah I think one thing we can probably say for certain is that NNE is going to get crushed this winter, I think they will see some big totals. Down to BOS and ORH I think it will be pretty decent, anywhere from just below to just slightly above average and then south of there...way below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Maybe due to one storm. That can happen when you average 18" of snow per season. LOL ...the lone exception is '78-'79 which ironically was good in the M.A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I know Tacoman25 has said this and maybe there is a significance, but I have seen few..if any 80's and 90's showing up in the analog charts. Old school Nina FTW?? Yeah, and those that doubted the1950s and 1960s analogs haven't said a peep about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Almost all -NAO/-PNA winters have been above avg snowfall in SNE...the lone exception is '78-'79 which ironically was good in the M.A. Suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 awful lot of in the NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Almost all -NAO/-PNA winters have been above avg snowfall in SNE...the lone exception is '78-'79 which ironically was good in the M.A. Lot's of 90+" and 100+" totals from the Chesterfield Co-op for the years you listed. A few slightly below but overall respectable showings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 in a lot of ways, i feel like we've said everything there is to say about this pattern shift. now it's time to get the cold/snow going to start dissecting an actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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