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Hi! Would like to see an obs only page for this storm to make it easier to find the data, not only for myself but potentially the media with avid winter weather interest quite high. I'll add only 1 EXPERIMENTAL graphic from about 5AM this morning (Saturday 30th before the storm), but may eventually add pix to support observations as this complex event evolves in its banded - varying intensity form. The graphic below i think is realistic about axis of trouble and I can explain it a bit on the Dec 1-3 discussion page if requested, for those who've not seen this experimental product. Other NWS staff may improve on my interpretation. The legend should assist. -
Figured we could have a separate thread dedicated strictly to December. Should be helpful when looking back on the discussions in the future. Hope everyone is doing well, and I hope we all have a December to remember!
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Good morning American Weather participants, It might be nice to consolidate wintry precip reports for whatever this minor event delivers today, under one topic. While flurries have occurred in parts of the metro area (nw NJ for sure) on the 8th, today's short period of flurries or snow should be a little more widespread though confidence on where anyone sees a slight accumulation (especially grass-cars-rooftops) is less than ideal.
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Good Friday morning, not much snow or sleet expected today but prolonged icing on trees/wires and untreated pavements foreseen for elevations above 1000 feet this afternoon-evening, especially Sussex County NJ into se NYS. Another marginal event but its definitely going to be cold. Here in Wantage NJ at 740'MSL at 720AM its still 32F with a very low dew point. It's been snowing a bit in Hazleton and Lehighton PA and now icing in Williamsport.
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Snow or sleet should begin ~2A-3A nw NJ and develop east northeastward with better chances for a start as snow when you get to the Hudson River and points east into Connecticut. The southern edge of any very brief slight sleet (or even wet snow) accumulation should be near Interstate 80 prior to sunrise EDT. Significant icing is possible over the high terrain above 1000 feet from nw NJ into se NYS and western CT before temps at even the highest elevations of NJ/SE NYS exceed 32F around Noon Sunday. Best chance for any small snow accum appears to be the very northern fringe of this NYC forum area. Hope we can get some reports of wintry accums of some sort.
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One storm at a time. Should be fun overnight and wind down Saturday morning. Thank you for participating-contributing.
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I in Wantage may not be able to post til ~230P. Have at it. Another mess. Posting some graphics by 7A, on the 20-21 Threat thread, to look back tomorrow and see performance.
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Hi! Looks like a nice little event coming tonight into Monday, with some banding, especially se NYS-CT where all snow likely.
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If the moderators feel the current thread on discussing the threat is sufficient then just discard this. I'll probably have something to start this around 5A or 6A/12.
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If I crash and burn... I crash and burn... But I think it is now warranted for this
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Here is our 2019 February winter thread. I hope February is a month to remember for all of us across the forum in regards to wintry weather. We have a lot of moving pieces directing our February outlook so here’s to hoping we can start to get more clarity as we go forward. MJO is moving through phase 5 but it should be in phase 6 within the next few days so hopefully that translates well for us going forward.
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Would like to keep this an observations only thread of what will be an interesting 18 hour winter storm 5P today-2P Sunday, with potentially high impact (damaging power outage) glaze from somewhere near or just n of I-80 in nw NJ/ne PA northward to I-84, after a front end snow/sleet combo prior to midnight.
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I'm already at my low... Currently 32...
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Have fun, time to see if I keep batting 1.000
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Less than a week out and all indicies show both Carolinas getting something... So let's bring this one all the way home
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I figured since meteorological winter was just around the corner I'd go ahead and get the new observations topic ready. Let the season begin!
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The month of December is almost upon us so we figured it was time to create a December winter thread. Looks like it could be a cold month with possible time frames that may support good conditions for winter storms. Let the breakdown begin! BTW Go VOLS today, #beatmizzou
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Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.
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First storm tracking of the season. Let’s hope we all get some snow out of this.
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Rain, sleet, snow, thunderstorms, regional climate, jet stream, La Niña, El Niño, polar vortex, ice pack, ETC. anything that can have an affect on the two seasons in question is up for analysis and debate. Our forum is one of the best at informing and teaching people as well as conversing with friends. Let’s try to keep that going with this thread, and don’t forget a lot of people come to our threads just to learn. As we have some very talented professional and novice Mets on our board. Let the speculation begin!
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Cold air has entered the forum and the winter weather should be getting into the western forum area soon.
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Trying to keep the longer range thread for forecasting. Now cast situation here. Temps from the Plateau and East seem to be between 28 and 32 with wet bulbs in the low to mid 20s. Ground is extremely frozen and any precip that falls should produce a nice sheen. Unfortunately west of the plateau the WAA was unfettered with temps from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Will have to see if the WWA can verify for places like Cookeville.
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Dwagner is reporting 2.5" of snow in Ducktown.
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Looks like we have some snowpack starting to build around the globe. Hopefully we can get some artic air moving into the area soon!
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The models keep showing this as a possible threat. Jeff mentions his reasoning for the ice potential in the winter pattern thread. A very strong cold front will sweep through the area overnight Saturday into Sunday causing crashing temps. Most models agree there will be moisture of some amount behind the front. There could also be freezing issues due to the heavy amounts of water left by the rain. In addition to the totals of ice below. Models also show some degree of sleet or snow. I believe the Euro showed an inch or so in a good portion of the area. The NAM shows some snow in parts of East Tennessee. The GFS had a couple of runs showing it too. I believe some of their maps may be incorporating sleet into their snow total maps. The worst case scenario is the Canadian, crippling ice storm for a good portion of the Valley on the 12z run. The Canadian was the first to show this possibility and hasn't wavered from it for days on end. The GFS is much more localized with freezing rain totals. The NAM splits the difference.
