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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Then it goes into OH, before remembering it's supposed to be in WV lol
  2. TellicoWx
    Before everyone cliff jumps lol...while not good, any shift in the LP generation will have big impacts on East TN. Models don't handle lee side genesis well.
  3. TellicoWx
    Plume for Tys, (mean not quite as bad as viewing thru 12hr mean) but is skewed due to the big ones
  4. TellicoWx
    For middle/west forum folks..mean catches the front, but jumps valley due to the late low...12 hr mean
  5. TellicoWx
    Yeah...looking at the mean progression, looks to be in the WV camp
  6. TellicoWx
    I dropped from 50% greater than 4" to 10%...40 north is 25%...NE TN 50%
  7. TellicoWx
    15z vs 21z for eastern valley (heavier amounts barely make it into NE TN)
  8. TellicoWx
    1" mean only makes it to TYS
  9. TellicoWx
    21z SREF with a big shift east with the LP..not a good run for south of 40 in the valley
  10. TellicoWx
    Agree, with Blue Ridge and John...overnight crew will prob issue for the typical areas (mtns/ va/ky)..tomorrow crew at the earliest for everyone else (if needed). As far as the short range models, we are still outside their greater error range..until there's a clear picture of what happens during the passage over the Rockies, H5 will still bounce around.
  11. TellicoWx
    Maybe John (or one of you guys can remember)...What would be a similar system (in regards to the potential banding) in the past? May give some insight into which had a better handle (Euro or GFS).
  12. TellicoWx
    Something that strikes me, is the strength of the NW flow on that RGEM map...not often you see a model have the setup to take NW flow all the way to the SC coast.
  13. TellicoWx
    Neighbors gets 6"...5 miles down road gets a dusting lol
  14. TellicoWx
    Interstesting piece in MRX AFD: Finally, the strength of the front is impressive, and will result in the potential for banding. The GFS and NAM both indicate negative EPV in the 700-500mb layer which would also support the potential for banding
  15. TellicoWx
    18z RGEM didn't dig quite as much vs 12z so it edged the front a hair more east w/lp
  16. TellicoWx
    That's the 12z lol..here's the 18z
  17. TellicoWx
    Hard to tell but looks like it is trying to get something going near LA/MS border
  18. TellicoWx
    Tail is digger a little deeper...NAM keeps doing this in upcoming runs, will be close to the gulf lol
  19. TellicoWx
    Lol, that doesn't come until 00z/12z timeframe...one of the two will fold
  20. TellicoWx
  21. TellicoWx
    Seen worse from Euro...baby step better than 0z
  22. TellicoWx
    I understand their stance right now, alot easier to ramp up tommorow evening, than it would be to ramp down.
  23. TellicoWx
    Yeah, wouldnt want to be a met at MRX right now
  24. TellicoWx
    Don't think the globals will have an agreement until the energy/trough begin to clear the Rockies..around 12z tomorrow..unless sampling over the NW as it comes ashore can help sooner
  25. TellicoWx
    Just look at 0z UKie, looks same almost lol
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