brooklynwx99

seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-Feb. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely weeklies are also absolutely HONKING. they remind me of Feb 2010, 1978 and 1958, and 2010 has always been a very solid analog for later in the winter... 1958 was discussed as a good analog, too. that year has held up really well with the warm start, Jan blocking, and now a great Feb pattern lasting into early March I want to give things another week to simmer and allow for the favorable pattern to get inside 7-10 days on ENS, but I think we might be in for it. the winter cancel stuff earlier this week was ridiculous

Judah is failing to realize that what happens up top isn't exactly what happens down here. it's the same as a SSW event that doesn't couple. it seems like the stratosphere is going to do its own thing

wooooooosh

we have gotten multiple significant blocks over the last two years

still skeptical, but it’s hard not to get excited with these kinds of looks. no can kicking and the signal is growing in time if we’re seeing these looks in a week’s time, i think we can say this pattern is real… it would be around a week out on ENS

shift the Aleutian low west a bit and there you have it there were seven major storms in these three years in Feb thru early March

NYC south, really. BOS might have a hard time with strong blocking

there’s a 50/50 on a 7 day mean at like 3 weeks out. like holy crap lmao

yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny

i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well

i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS it is literally a recreation of Feb 1958/1978/2010

weeklies are still loaded beyond belief. not a single tick back, either

EPS is near identical to the weeklies

that’s what gets kicked out or retrogrades. it’s not gonna stay there

i don’t think that the GFS solution is likely by any means, but it certainly is a possibility

but… it’s fake! right? RIGHT???

you can see all of the ULLs stretching across the ATL. this is how you get big wave breaking that leads to a -NAO. almost like the ATL is blocking itself up before the block even really forms

yeah once you get to the 10th, that's when the trough opens up more into the ATL and heights rise over the WC and AK. that's when you have Arctic air to work with via cross polar flow

are we even punting at this point for storm potential? let alone a torch

LOL

I wanna give it another 5-7 days to see the whites of the better pattern's eyes, but I'm of the same impression for now

this is so zonked lmao wild omega block. i do like seeing polar flow get established, though

yup, just rots there. I mean, it would make sense verbatim given the omega block. there's nowhere for that impulse to go

you’re getting very close to linking those two troughs as well… that’s when you pop your -NAO

speaking for NYC specifically, there were three winters over 30” from 1970-2000. three!! there have been 13 winters over 30” since 2000. five in a row from 2013-2017 the whole “it doesn’t snow as much anymore” argument is BS. there’s just more variance, so when you strike out, you’re at a higher risk of a true dud rather than your standard blah winter