brooklynwx99

yeah once you get to the 10th, that's when the trough opens up more into the ATL and heights rise over the WC and AK. that's when you have Arctic air to work with via cross polar flow

are we even punting at this point for storm potential? let alone a torch

LOL

I wanna give it another 5-7 days to see the whites of the better pattern's eyes, but I'm of the same impression for now

this is so zonked lmao wild omega block. i do like seeing polar flow get established, though

yup, just rots there. I mean, it would make sense verbatim given the omega block. there's nowhere for that impulse to go

you’re getting very close to linking those two troughs as well… that’s when you pop your -NAO

speaking for NYC specifically, there were three winters over 30” from 1970-2000. three!! there have been 13 winters over 30” since 2000. five in a row from 2013-2017 the whole “it doesn’t snow as much anymore” argument is BS. there’s just more variance, so when you strike out, you’re at a higher risk of a true dud rather than your standard blah winter

BPD ass forum

all ensembles are in near lock step with both each other and the weeklies. only a few days from the promised land connecting the two troughs

yes, the advertised pattern plays better for like HFD south. once into mid-Feb, everyone can get in on the action… NYC and MA are favored, but 2003 and 1983 got into BOS

if that Canadian block is far enough north to let something underneath, yes

jesus christ

the first week of Feb is officially interesting if that block gets far enough north and energy undercuts it

i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames? an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count

bringing the absolutely stale, jaded taste of the NYC subforum to SNE. what a treat!

no, it rolls over. the -NAO comes mid month after the trough gets booted out of the SW

wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath. potent omega block

really strong omega block showing up on the GEFS. wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath... would probably favor the MA but still intriguing regardless, wouldn't be much of a torch here with flow coming out of northern Canada

this is what happens if that mid-week clipper bombs out, btw if it wraps up, you can slip a vort under the block with a 50/50 in place

talk about wave breaking. god damn

exactly. this isn't a time when all three ensembles look totally different at D10-15 and there's little to no ENSO influence... there's a good bit higher confidence than normal

i'm just basing it off of the general pattern progression... the one on the weeklies makes sense you retract the Pacific jet and it leads to ridging over the WC and AK via an Aleutian Low. there's excess momentum leading to a trough over the SW US. that trough is expelled via the -EPO forming... that trough gets replaced by a +PNA the SW US trough connects with the N Atl trough that's already present... this then leads to a E US trough as well as wave breaking that assists the development of a -NAO. at that point, you are left with the pattern on the weeklies are the weeklies correct? who knows, they could absolutely be wrong. I can tell you that the progression they're showing makes a lot of sense, though

usually when you have stable blocking patterns, you need something to break them. that's where the big storm comes in I'm still cautious given how the last couple of winters have gone, but given: tremendous agreement on all three ENS suites for the transitionary period Feb 5-10 coinciding with a weakening Pacific jet ENS matching up with extended guidance nearly perfectly at the end of their runs the transition moving forward in time general Nino climo to force a +PNA/-AO in February I'm pretty optimistic. this could be the best period many in the MA and NYC have had in quite some time. just want to give it another week to get those changes within a more meaningful timeframe

that split flow is what we were missing from the mid-Jan pattern. you're gonna get blocking a few days after this look as well