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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the EPS and all other ENS following the weeklies nearly verbatim. you’re a few days from slipping the STJ under the Canadian block and connecting it to the N Atl trough and you’re in a great pattern very quickly. that evolution also encourages a -NAO via wave breaking as well
  2. brooklynwx99
    you end up here on the OP... you're very quickly moving to a good to great pattern here. lots is in motion
  3. brooklynwx99
    from a perspective of providing actionable information to clients, which is what i do, “warm and snowy” will make their heads explode. that is tough to convey clearly for laymen
  4. brooklynwx99
    i’ll put it this way. if 8/10 years are AN, then what is really “normal” at that point? when does a new one get defined?
  5. brooklynwx99
    that’s why i can’t give him too many props. something about blind squirrels
  6. brooklynwx99
    when wouldn’t you, then? weak ENSO? neutral winters? tough to say
  7. brooklynwx99
    being correct and being able to provide an accurate picture of how the winter may play out are two different things. Feb could easily be AN from the first week and drop 30” in two weeks in the MA. how would one reconcile that in a forecast?
  8. brooklynwx99
    who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though
  9. brooklynwx99
    it's annoying that the warm periods are SO warm that they skew things. i feel like the overall tenor of the winter has been close to the same as forecast... shit Dec with next to no hope, a transitionary Jan that's still warmer than normal, and then a good to great Feb. the +EAMT just pushed things back a week or so, but there's no way to see that in November
  10. brooklynwx99
    this winter was always going to come down to one or two big ones. I don't see anything throwing a wrench in that right now
  11. brooklynwx99
    nothing has happened to it. speculation has become extremely negative, but it's just speculation. there's no actual evidence that we won't enter a favorable, more typical Nino pattern in mid-February besides persistence (this winter has not been a good example of persistence, by the way) and vibes
  12. brooklynwx99
    one should probably wait until February is over to make such a statement
  13. brooklynwx99
    granted, you'd end up in quite a favorable pattern around the 10-15th as that SW trough slips under the Canadian blocking and the Aleutian Low maintains the -EPO/+PNA, but yeah, it would torch for a week before then. wave breaking could also lead to a -NAO. this is the same evolution extended guidance has, and it's similar to what happened this month when the Pacific jet overextended in late Dec not sure if anyone really cares about any of that, though
  14. brooklynwx99
    the MJO is a bit overstated. nobody gave a flying fuck about it from like 2003 until 2021 until the last couple of winters. they didn't really care because it just kept snowing... now people need to overattribute the lack of snow to a single variable when it isn't that simple is it important? absolutely! but it's not the end all be all
  15. brooklynwx99
    there is no actual reasoning for that, though. i see no reason to believe that we won't have a two to three week long favorable period from like Feb 15 - March 10 as the jet lessens. people are just jaded right now, can't blame them a supercharged Pacific jet is also pretty boilerplate strong Nino stuff. that's nothing new
  16. brooklynwx99
    that's a pretty huge assumption
  17. brooklynwx99
    the SPV isn't coupled, though, so it doesn't really matter all that much. the troposphere is doing its own thing. maybe it has an effect in mid-March? this is the same as a SSW that doesn't end up coupling and has next to no effect
  18. brooklynwx99
    the major warm period over the next couple weeks is more so due to +EAMT supercharging the Pacific jet... MJO phases 4-6 in a Nina usually warm us up via jet retraction, which is the opposite of what we're seeing here in the same vein, we should see a flip to quite a favorable pattern around Feb 10-15 as the jet inevitably retracts and the typical Feb Aleutian low takes over. the -PNA forced by the excess momentum also assists in wave breaking that likely leads to a -NAO
  19. brooklynwx99
    you can be the smartest person in the entire world and be right every single time, but if you're an asshole about it, nobody will listen because they'll dislike you. people aren't mad because he's "right", whatever that means in this context. they are mad because he's attacking people and spewing venom people seem to forget the importance of tact and making people feel good. you see this a shit ton on social media
  20. brooklynwx99
    the stronger SPV doesn’t couple, so Judah’s point doesn’t even hold water
  21. brooklynwx99
    charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension
  22. brooklynwx99
    lends a lot more credence to the Weeklies when all of the ENS are playing out in the same way it's quite similar to the last jet extension that we saw, but this time we'll have a strong Aleutian low to allow for strong shortwaves to enter the flow... sign me up
  23. brooklynwx99
    the agreement on all ensembles as well as extended guidance is pretty remarkable. slip that excess momentum under the Canadian ridge and connect it with the N Atl trough and BANG textbook Aleutian Low, too
  24. brooklynwx99
    it's a very similar progression to what we saw from late December into early-mid January. this time, though, we should have an actual Aleutian Low as well as shorter wavelengths and a more active STJ
  25. brooklynwx99
    it does look like we're going to see the same jet overextension and retraction that led to the very favorable pattern this month. this time, though, it'll be in Feb with shorter wavelengths and a more potent Aleutian low to allow for stronger shortwaves to enter the flow
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