brooklynwx99

it’s there, just south of the Mason-Dixon line

also seeing favorable trends out west for the Christmas timeframe could be a seasonal trend to underdo western ridging

pretty major change

i could see a weaker vort that drags the baroclinic zone south and brings in a better airmass before a larger system on the 21-22. not sure if that would be considered two storms, per se

near ideal ridge axis for a coastal storm. right over ID/MT into western Canada

near ideal ridge axis for a coastal storm. right over ID/MT into western Canada

like this is the exact shift you want

EPS also has a taller PNA and more favorable trough axis for the trailing energy

i think the main way to win here is for the first wave to establish a colder airmass and for the second one to buckle into the colder airmass with fresh HP in SE Canada if, of course, there are actually two distinct waves

i don't think one could draw up a more ideal +PNA

this will do it. that +PNA is bonkers

good enough. anywhere in that general vicinity usually puts the trough axis in a good spot

LOL i thought you meant the ridge. i was like "really? it's in a perfect spot"

EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well

EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well

EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well

front end thump

i wouldn’t have posted it, but verbatim it’s 6” for NYC

notice how the Pacific trough has been trending more equatorward with more AK ridging

you often need a strong Pacific trough to get a tall ridge like that. can't have one without the other the trough will knock the ridge down after it builds... there's always some needle threading with these kinds of setups

yeah inland is going to be favored here, agreed. coast can be on watch with tempered expectations at this juncture

the timeframe around the 21st is becoming more interesting as all major ensembles have begun to converge on an anomalous ridge forming in a near ideal spot over MT. EPS has a 2 sigma full latitude ridge into W Canada, elongating the TPV southward I am not trying to hype or anything due to the lead time involved here, but this setup does bear a resemblance to the Jan 2022 storm. same general waveform with a weak WAR helping to prevent an overly suppressive outcome the antecedent airmass isn't as good here, but I still do think that this timeframe bears watching. inland is always favored at this time of year but even the coast can be on watch. just keep an eye on this over the next several days... the models have been volatile with the Pacific, so shifts are likely

i mean, damn. 2 sigma ridge over MT stretching up to the heavens lmao TPV trying to stretch down into SE Canada, weak WAR. it's honestly not too far off from the Jan 2022 setup. obviously here the antecedent airmass isn't as good, but it's analogous

best to accept the LR guidance is without a clue on how to handle that Pacific trough. these run to run deltas around Christmas on the GEFS are silly. just zero consistency. way less than normal

also, it does look like some TPV involvement modulates the height field downstream... notice the W flow in SE Canada compared to the ripping SW flow we're seeing today