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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    that is true, I generally agree... it has been done before, though. i would kinda argue that you want a bit of a WAR. things can become suppressed if you have a massive PNA ridge alongside a large 50/50, especially up by you guys. that's often how you get the NYC-DC specials
  2. brooklynwx99
    can't really ask for much more from a general synoptic perspective here. 2.5-3 sigma ridge in an ideal spot with a potent vort diving into the Plains. details will get ironed out but it's nice to see the models keying in more on the second wave
  3. brooklynwx99
    can't really ask for much more from a general synoptic perspective here. 2.5-3 sigma ridge in an ideal spot with a potent vort diving into the Plains. details will get ironed out but it's nice to see the models keying in more on the second wave
  4. brooklynwx99
    LOL i think this thread is held to a bit higher standard when discussing the synoptics
  5. brooklynwx99
    given the taller +PNA spike towards the 21-22, I think the wave on the 19-20 likely gets more and more washed out. the CMC is a good example of that
  6. brooklynwx99
    we have had a similar longwave pattern for Jan 2022 and Jan 2014. tall ridge over the Pac NW / NW Rockies, deep trough with TPV interaction into the OH Valley, and a WAR pushing into Nova Scotia. not calling for a MECS or anything but there are similarities
  7. brooklynwx99
    not sure what more someone can ask for at this range. massive PNA ridge in an ideal spot amplifying a TPV lobe / polar vort
  8. brooklynwx99
    it’s there, just south of the Mason-Dixon line
  9. brooklynwx99
    also seeing favorable trends out west for the Christmas timeframe could be a seasonal trend to underdo western ridging
  10. brooklynwx99
    pretty major change
  11. brooklynwx99
    i could see a weaker vort that drags the baroclinic zone south and brings in a better airmass before a larger system on the 21-22. not sure if that would be considered two storms, per se
  12. brooklynwx99
    near ideal ridge axis for a coastal storm. right over ID/MT into western Canada
  13. brooklynwx99
    near ideal ridge axis for a coastal storm. right over ID/MT into western Canada
  14. brooklynwx99
    like this is the exact shift you want
  15. brooklynwx99
    EPS also has a taller PNA and more favorable trough axis for the trailing energy
  16. brooklynwx99
    i think the main way to win here is for the first wave to establish a colder airmass and for the second one to buckle into the colder airmass with fresh HP in SE Canada if, of course, there are actually two distinct waves
  17. brooklynwx99
    i don't think one could draw up a more ideal +PNA
  18. brooklynwx99
    this will do it. that +PNA is bonkers
  19. brooklynwx99
    good enough. anywhere in that general vicinity usually puts the trough axis in a good spot
  20. brooklynwx99
    LOL i thought you meant the ridge. i was like "really? it's in a perfect spot"
  21. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well
  22. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well
  23. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well
  24. brooklynwx99
    front end thump
  25. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t have posted it, but verbatim it’s 6” for NYC
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