brooklynwx99

the only reason it's even a consideration is because it was a moderate Nina (three trimonthlies of -1.0) that came off of a moderate Nino and it has some similarities in the Atlantic for this summer and autumn. it's not weighted high, and there's no reason why any analog should be completely discounted at this range when it's a similar ENSO state. I don't even expect a snowy winter. it'll probably be AN temps and BN snow for the east also, anyone that's certain about how strong the Nina is going to be and how it'll configure itself is fooling themselves. it isn't even June yet

1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2010-11, 2019-20, and 2020-21 are all fine analogs for now IMO. no real way to know which are better than others at this point given that we don't even know how the Nina is going to evolve at this point for the record, I am not expecting a good winter for the East. however, the two things that can help are a bit of Nino lag (helped in 95-96 and 2010-11 most notably) and high ACE, both of which likely have some kind of impact. we can just as easily see another dud, which is safer to expect the rubber band does have to snap back at some point... positive regression to the mean is pretty much imminent. would be ironic if we do see one of the good Nina winters in a year where people are expecting so little

trough on the EPS is deeper with stronger blocking

you have an anomalous -NAO breaking down over the Davis Strait and a 50/50 in place, it’s a really good pattern for a significant storm. and the trough is showing up as low as -3 to -4 sigma on OP runs. climo starts to mean less when you’re dealing with that level of deviation from the mean someone is going to get crushed. I would feel a lot better if I was in Boston

also, lol

and the trough is showing up as low as -3 to -4 sigma on OP runs. climo starts to mean less when you’re dealing with that level of deviation from the mean

you have an anomalous -NAO breaking down over the Davis Strait and a 50/50 in place, it’s a really good pattern for a significant storm

verbatim, some pretty stout cross polar flow develops. again, I would like to see it get closer, but it would work

IF the TPV gets displaced like some of the OP runs have shown, I'll buy it. big if for now, but with the ongoing SSW and Pacific wave breaking, it is a possibility. would be silly to totally dismiss it

hell, even 1998 had a late season event followed by a week of 80s. it was NYC's only snow of the winter

IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done

IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done

lol. if there was to be a dumb late season event, this would be the pattern you’d need to pull it off

this ain’t bad… blocked flow to the north, a 50/50 in place, and strong HP to the north to allow colder air to drain in. again, something to keep an eye on, especially away from the immediate coast

if this was Jan, i’d probably can the risk, but March is stupid and this could easily just cut off and dump

i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air

i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air

for reference, this MECS occurred four days afterwards. lmao

oh yeah? this you? @Allsnow must have been nice digging out from 18” and then 6” over the next two weeks

i don't really see the point in posting about a warm ass pattern, either. hence why I come off as cold biased... i only really post about things that look conducive for winter weather. i don't see any interesting about 7-10 days of AN with this pattern. most posters are like this like what is there to say about this other than warm and boring? lmao

@snowman19 also, I am aware that the advertised pattern fell through. it's annoying, but there were also a lot of other meteorologists that were excited at the possibilities, and rightfully so. you should find some respected mets on Twitter or even on this forum and shit on them too, while you're at it. sometimes the models just do a really bad job. hell, they couldn't even figure out the Feb 15th storm a day in advance you have also had your fair share of complete fails (as does every other person that forecasts the weather for an extended period of time), but you don't see me ready to pounce on you for it. i also don't put words in your mouth either, but you're just here in bad faith, so i can't expect anything less

you okay dude? I think @40/70 Benchmark is a therapist. you should have a chat with him! god bless

also yeah it's going to torch until the 10th or so but things likely moderate with some typical late-season wintry chances for the interior afterwards. i don't see anything that advertises prolonged anomalous warmth into mid-month

you mean at like 144 hours out? who cares sometimes you complain that people don't like you because you're such a "realist" but this is more grating to read than whatever Tony posted lmao

the thing is that is looks like this a couple days before the frame you posted. of course there's going to be a residual ridge with a full latitude trough stretching from Siberia to Baja CA. give the GEFS a couple of days to push the colder air east. looking at this stuff without context doesn't do much good