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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I think the coast would do fine there given the low heights extending into the N Atl with the trough axis overhead. most amplification looks to occur offshore there. also, that block is in the process of retrograding and extending westward I do think the interior is favored with the initial storm around the 14-15th, though
  2. brooklynwx99
    nothing has gotten pushed back... it's been very consistently modeled
  3. brooklynwx99
    one could argue it's actually getting pushed quicker with time, definitely no pushing back here
  4. brooklynwx99
    GEFS and GEPS both look very good for mid-month. tall WC ridge building into AK, building -NAO, split flow, and deep E US trough
  5. brooklynwx99
    what are you talking about?
  6. brooklynwx99
    it'll look better in a few days when it has the -NAO retrograding
  7. brooklynwx99
    well, this is where we're at so far today. absolutely stellar looks from the GEFS and GEPS, and everything is moving forward in time
  8. brooklynwx99
    absurd split flow
  9. brooklynwx99
    it really is annoying, because the mid-Jan period was ripe with potential and just didn't deliver. had it done so, it completely would have changed the tenor of the winter and many would have been sitting with a significant event under their belts. but of course not
  10. brooklynwx99
    the upcoming pattern would provide the chance for a torrid comeback from Feb 15 through early March... about as good of a chance as any. but I get that people are jaded. it's been tremendously frustrating
  11. brooklynwx99
    I would say through the 10-15th. these patterns are usually quite stable once they form and are often broken by a bigger storm. Nino climo should take over during the second half of the month
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah sure
  13. brooklynwx99
    significant is 6", major is 12", and historic is 18"
  14. brooklynwx99
    everything still looks on track for mid-month... MJO moving into favorable phases, equatorward Pacific jet extension will foster strong Aleutian low development, split flow, building -NAO via wave breaking in the N Atl. all ensembles are in really good agreement temporally and spatially i'd like to give it another week to get this into a better range, but it looks good
  15. brooklynwx99
    everything still looks on track for mid-month... MJO moving into favorable phases, equatorward Pacific jet extension will foster strong Aleutian low development, split flow, building -NAO via wave breaking in the N Atl. all ensembles are in really good agreement temporally and spatially i'd like to give it another week to get this into a better range, but it looks good
  16. brooklynwx99
    pretty rare to see this much confidence from phase diagrams like this. continues like this into March as well
  17. brooklynwx99
    this is a sick blocking signal for this range
  18. brooklynwx99
    EPS agrees with other guidance, powerful Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO, split flow, and developing -NAO
  19. brooklynwx99
    GEFS certainly on board. love the split flow showing up on all ENS
  20. brooklynwx99
    this is as split as flow can ever get lmao
  21. brooklynwx99
    love seeing that massive Aleutian low crash southward and lead to split flow. really nice evolution that keeps presenting itself
  22. brooklynwx99
    CMC is trying but failing
  23. brooklynwx99
    it wasn't lucky. the pattern before that storm was a classic KU preloading pattern
  24. brooklynwx99
    wow. switch totally flipped
  25. brooklynwx99
    the ICON isn't even that different from the GFS at the same lead time, it just retros the block a bit more and allows the TPV in to phase. razor thin margins
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