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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM
  2. brooklynwx99
    this helps. after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM
  3. brooklynwx99
    larger storms almost invariably occur when the block finishes retrograding and rots... here is a loop of the preloading pattern for NYC's largest storms. some of these likely apply to SNE as well, so it's applicable notice how that Pacific trough remains almost the entire time. the PNA is pretty ephemeral and it develops as the block decays
  4. brooklynwx99
    the SPV and TPV getting torn to shreds and coupling increases the chance for blocking to reload, likely sometime in the first week of March. you'll get two, maybe three cracks at a big dog. we've spun the KU wheel three times so far in the last two years... you'd think your odds are better than 16% given three more chances in that kind of pattern
  5. brooklynwx99
    can pretty easily see the Pacific trough retrograde, heights out west rise, and heights along the EC fall. all of this happens as the block finishes retrograding and weakens... this is the window for that major storm. models would never pick up on a brief PNA spike at range, either
  6. brooklynwx99
    can pretty easily see the Pacific trough retrograde, heights out west rise, and heights along the EC fall. all of this happens as the block finishes retrograding and weakens
  7. brooklynwx99
    EPS still has the mega block... lots of coastal lows showing up around the PD week period
  8. brooklynwx99
    that's the first crack at it. definitely more thread the needle, but doable, as we're seeing
  9. brooklynwx99
    southern stream holds back a bit, there are more true coastal solutions than 00z
  10. brooklynwx99
    GEFS really likes the PD week timeframe. has the STJ undercutting the blocking and ejecting potent vorts
  11. brooklynwx99
    this is just ridiculous looking lmao
  12. brooklynwx99
    the GFS is also making two perfect 90 degree angles with like a 250kt jet. color me skeptical!
  13. brooklynwx99
    with a poor antecedent airmass, a track like that can certainly produce rain. it's going to be like 60 degrees on Friday lmao
  14. brooklynwx99
    not really. the GEFS is just diffuse with everything and is weakest with blocking. not surprising given how the OP has been floundering around. it’s actually really active in the Gulf that trough is quickly retrograding as well, so heights along the WC quickly rise. there’s still a strong 50/50 and blocking over the top
  15. brooklynwx99
    NS and SS are more disjointed. SS is more hung back... should be better in theory as the NS should be able to get out ahead and suppress heights
  16. brooklynwx99
    this retrograding Scandi high on the EPS is textbook
  17. brooklynwx99
    the EPS has trended significantly stronger at that range with the -NAO today
  18. brooklynwx99
    nah I meant red flag as in the GEFS is likely too weak with it. the more anomalous, the better with the block, as it would just reinforce a better air mass and 50/50. a larger storm would come after it weakens a bit, anyway
  19. brooklynwx99
    the main mechanism that leads to these larger storms for NYC is a highly anomalous, retrograding -NAO over the Davis Strait. as the -NAO decays, the 50/50 ULL also moves into a favorable spot to force confluence, also becoming highly anomalous. a Pacific trough often deposits a wave into the flow and retrogrades, allowing a transient Rockies ridge to pop (notice the general troughiness over the Rockies beforehand) now, notice how similar this evolution is. very potent 50/50 developing, highly anomalous -NAO retrograding into the Davis Strait, and a Pacific trough waiting to deposit a wave before it backs off. also persistent AK ridging, consistent with the composite this is why people are mentioning potential for larger storms. it isn't for no reason... there are a lot of similarities to patterns that have produced. would be silly not to mention them
  20. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the last run of the GEFS beefed the blocking up more. since the blocking is forced by wave breaking and an amplified 50/50 ULL, I would expect the GEFS to be on the weaker side with blocking due to its progressive bias. the EPS and GEPS both looking way more aggressive is a bit of a red flag there. the EPS has trended significantly stronger with blocking since 12z yesterday
  21. brooklynwx99
    any ridge spikes in the Rockies are likely temporary, which is often the case and isn't a bad thing. ensembles wouldn't be able to pick up on that at range. here's 2016, for example. there was only a brief Rockies ridge spike pretty much a day or two before the storm
  22. brooklynwx99
    trends you like to see
  23. brooklynwx99
    if you think the GEFS is loaded, look at this lmao
  24. brooklynwx99
    you can see the GEFS eject a wave as the confluence relaxes and the block weakens... the Pacific trough buckles and leads to height rises over the Rockies. this is how you get a big storm
  25. brooklynwx99
    lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking
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