brooklynwx99

lol apparently Ben Noll is the harbinger of truth while Webb is useless. wonder why Webb is a pompous ass at times, but he is a smart guy

yeah i can't act like the blocking with -EPO/-WPO showing up isn't a positive sign

i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter. 2013-14, 2020-21, and 2021-22 are all good analogs i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low

near 3 sigma block next week likely provides opportunities for storminess... would watch the 5-7 days afterwards for any wintry chances in climo spots like NW NJ and N of 84

amazing work. I agree that 2021-22 likely matches the flavor of this year the best

can't really advertise snow at this juncture, too early outside of the normal climo spots in the interior and up into NNE. just bodes well IMO. rather see that than a black hole setting up over AK

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance no real snow risk here, just bodes well IMO

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance

i do like seeing all of the ridging over AK and the WC to end the month on longer range guidance... usually the winter begins to start to show its hand around the end of November obviously, take with a grain of salt at range. just nice to see this rather than a black hole over the WC or AK

this helps

MJO looping back into 7/8/1 in late Dec and early Jan also jives well with 2021-22

it's nice that the MJO was able to cycle through the cold phases. looks like we'll be making a pass towards them as we approach the holidays

people are frequently way too reductive with analogs

it's encouraging seeing the MJO being able to get into 8-1-2 with some strength. the TPV being strong will make Greenland blocking harder to come by, which has been expected

I think most of the heat will be focused in the Plains and Midwest but it will get pushed into the Northeast at times

November has looked very warm country wide for months now… analogs have been very emphatic about that I don’t think it being that warm has any unknown impact on the winter. seems like things are going according to plan

CPK 15" EWR 19" LGA 17" JFK 14"

relax. i just remembered from last year we all have biases, not a huge deal. i just thought it was kinda funny

did the same thing last year lmao

closer look at the ET Pacific for those two years. I'd argue that it's quite difficult to get years about 10 years apart from each other to match up that well in that domain

not really. this is apples and oranges? sure, there was more NAO blocking in 2013 and no weak +PNA, but the ET Pacific is very similar, which seems to be the main focus of most of the LR discussion. I would argue that it's much more important than something as mercurial as the NAO domain

also with 2013-14 and the PDO... not sure why this has to be stated again and again either. that year has things going for it other than just the PDO, which, by the way, isn't really congruent with that we're seeing. the PDO isn't one of the reasons why that year is being used the orientation of the SSTs (hybrid/CP Nina), the QBO, and solar are all pretty solid matches. is it a perfect year by any means? no. do I expect it to get as cold as that year? absolutely not. does it deserve to get completely tossed aside? no... analog forecasting is about mixing a bunch of years that can bring something to the table, and that year is one of them. I can see episodes of -EPO blocking showing up, just not nearly as persistently the extratropical Pacific could render the year useless, but it's never really ever that simple

the WB map is a control run... it's only showing one scenario. the TT map is an average of the last 12 forecasts. they are showing fundamentally different things. this gets rehashed every time people post a WB CFS map

yeah I think of it as more of a constructive/destructive interference indicator more than anything

it’s never quite that simple