brooklynwx99

really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging

really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging

not saying that this is the year (it probably isn't), but with CC, you're going to get more crap winters than normal. however, when you do get a good winter, it's probably going to break records in places. you just have more moisture to work with. 2013-14 or 2014-15 with more oomph can cancel out the last 3-5 years of boredom

this is a bit different than typical wraparound moisture

very dynamic solutions showing up for NNJ and parts of the HV. very good FGEN and lift BL is going to be an issue this early in the year but heavy rates and post sundown timing really increase the odds for accums. hills are going to be favored in these early season situations, though it's best not to mess around with setups as dynamic as these

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI in the medium to long range... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

in terms of cold analog years, a scenario like 2013-14 makes way more sense than 2010-11

this is a really impressive trend. wouldn't be surprised to see waters near Japan cool and waters in the GoAK warm given the upcoming pattern

the MJO also isn't a silver bullet. it often correlates to the broader pattern but there are times where it doesn't have much of an impact I do anticipate the models to get a bit warmer for early Dec, though it doesn't have to happen

yeah seeing the persistent troughing over Japan and N of HI is encouraging. the PDO would also continue to rise if these troughs were to develop. nice seeing the cross polar flow as well... we've had ineffective -EPOs with a +WPO alongside them in recent years

why are you even bothering with him

are we really posting 300 hour OP runs in the Niña thread

i will never understand why they decided to run the weeklies every day

i could see a warm spell in mid December, but even the colder years like 2013 had such a spell. the beginning of Dec 2013 was a torch we’ll have to see how the end of Nov plays out

functionally, I feel like that composite acts like a +NAO. Atlantic flow is fast there

if we do end up going the colder route this winter (which i do not expect is the case as of now), then something like a 2021-22 / 2013-14 blend looks reasonable general tendency towards +PNA, a -WPO that encroaches on the -EPO domain, a largely -NAO, and an elongated PV in SE Canada

can't say these don't match up pretty well either

now, it's another can of worms as to whether modeling will be correct. we'll find out in the coming weeks, though the +PNA/-EPO pattern is moving forward in time if late Nov does indeed feature a +PNA/-EPO pattern, it will make me more optimistic for the +TNH pattern that people like Webb are hinting at

the pattern that closes out November might be crucial for determining the flavor of the overall winter. given that we're seeing a pretty favorable winter pattern showing itself on medium to long range guidance, i wanted to see if it would have any predictive power for the winter i did some digging on the analogs which i find viable: 1983-84, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2001-02, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23. better analogs are bolded i plotted the pattern from Nov 19-29 (basically just a 10 day stretch in late Nov) and the resulting winter pattern. the results were interesting... most years had a decent to strong correlation between the late Nov pattern and the overall winter, mainly in the Pacific there are years like 1998-99, 1999-00, 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2013-14 that had late Nov periods that strongly correlated to the following winter. years like 2011-12 and 1998-99 were near dead ringers... years that went into Dec with a potent AK trough often had it linger for the winter. years like 2010-11 aren't as airtight, but the Pacific patterns were very similar years like 2001-02, 2008-09, 2020-21, and 2021-22 had a decent correlation, mainly in the Pacific. for example, although there was no early -NAO blocking in 2020-21, the Pacific patterns are nearly identical. the patterns for 2021-22 aren't perfectly matched, but late Nov picked up on the +PNA tendency that would lead to a cold Jan (2008-09 is similar). 2001-02 had a EC ridge that never really went away with -PNA rearing its head early the other four years had little to no correlation, like 2012-13: overall, 9/13 years had at least a decent correlation, and 5 of those 9 were strongly correlated IMO. this isn't a perfect science by any means, though it does provide some numbers to the age-old "when does winter start showing itself" question

this doesn't look to be the case as we draw later into the month but we'll see how modeling does