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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open
  2. brooklynwx99
    you have to take what the guidance is giving you. the pattern progression shown by all major ensembles is good, and downplaying it because of what happened weeks ago isn’t a good way to forecast. by that logic, those that forecasted the Blizzard of 2016 would’ve been called crazy since that winter was so warm beforehand persistence always looks genius until it falls flat on its face
  3. brooklynwx99
    the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here 9/30 members give NYC over a foot of snow in the next 16 days. not sure why futility is even being mentioned
  4. brooklynwx99
    the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here seven members out of 30 give BOS 20” or more in the next 16 days! crazy
  5. brooklynwx99
    the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here
  6. brooklynwx99
    timing a shortwave at more than 5 days out is pretty much impossible, and the factors that lead to snow on the coastal plain generally come down to luck, this isn't New England, we need things to break right the blocking this year was actually more anomalous. I'm just saying it's a matter of bad luck because you can't determine exactly where it's going to set up and how it'll impact the pattern more than like 5 days out. it's just not possible
  7. brooklynwx99
    not really sure. it's probably just bad luck... if the shortwave that led to the cutter came in a day later, it would have been a huge coastal storm, but the ridge was too far W and then the follow up wave was a day too late and the ridge broke down out west. just really bad timing, could have been a very good stretch. luck is always in our winters here
  8. brooklynwx99
    if you're talking about late December, that pattern deserved to be hyped up. it was pretty awful luck that the period didn't produce, what can you do though sometimes even the 9/10 patterns fail. December 2010 could have easily gone the same way, but we got lucky with BDB
  9. brooklynwx99
    it couldn't be because we've had the most productive snow period over the last 15 years ever, no? Islip has averaged more than State College lmao regression to the mean sucks
  10. brooklynwx99
    well, this place is chipper as always
  11. brooklynwx99
    this could be a really nice period. lots of cold air available and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south
  12. brooklynwx99
    this could be a really nice period. lots of cold air available and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south
  13. brooklynwx99
    this could be a really nice period. lots of available cold and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south
  14. brooklynwx99
    disruptions can be as useful as SSWs in terms of making blocking a bit more easy to obtain
  15. brooklynwx99
    it looks like we’re seeing the 700mb vort tick farther W, leading to a better chance for legit wraparound precip
  16. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it's not like ensemble forecasting isn't the most powerful medium to long range forecasting tool we have instead, we should use persistence and outdated MJO plots. i don't even know why I got a degree!
  17. brooklynwx99
    give me an actual meteorological reason that you know that they'll be rain besides the fact that it's been warm so far this month I never said they they would 100% be snow, or even that it's likely that they're snow just that the TPV has a chance of pressing S and can deliver confluence ahead of a southern stream wave, leading to an overrunning event, and that's what the ensembles may be picking up on. not that crazy of an idea
  18. brooklynwx99
    getting too stressed about things that are completely out of your control is a recipe for disaster, and the weather is a prime example it's better to take the good when it comes and to distract yourself when things get crappy, you just gotta accept it. nothing you can do
  19. brooklynwx99
    how do you know that they'll be rain though? the boundary could easily set up south towards the MA if there's a deep enough cold press from the TPV. this is what some of the ensemble members are presenting as a possibility
  20. brooklynwx99
    idk, the ensemble means look as good for snowfall as they have all winter, pretty much this is quite impressive at this range. shows that modeling is beginning to pick up on events with a decent amount of agreement
  21. brooklynwx99
    that's a 10 day mean though... it wouldn't be able to pick up the transient arctic cold that a TPV displacement would bring
  22. brooklynwx99
    I think that timeframe poses a legit overrunning threat with the TPV displaced like that and southern stream waves running underneath
  23. brooklynwx99
    I'm pretty confident that you guys will see legit events through the first week of February. these means are impressive
  24. brooklynwx99
    EPS still pretty solid for midweek next week
  25. brooklynwx99
    If you want a front end thump before a change to rain, that's what you want I think everyone would take that at this point
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