brooklynwx99

finally, a legit antecedent airmass to work with

Oh Canada? edit: it does phase at the end, but this is still a very intriguing setup

THIS could do something, though. confluence rolling in with a much more potent wave than the GFS

the main thing is that we have a legit southern stream wave and very cold air to the north. almost a Nino-ish look with that wave. you can get serious overrunning that way with a thermal gradient that strong

the vort is less amplified and the TPV is farther S. both of these lead to a suppressed solution. I'd rather deal with that at this range than a cutter, though

you know, you did well with January, but I have no idea why you have to be so hyperbolic about warmth all the time you're allowed to say there is the potential for some snow along with legit cold over the next 10 days. you aren't going to keel over and die for doing it

yeah, this is a nice signature. more than cold enough. there's actually good ensemble agreement here... the GEFS and GEPS are both on board with this potential event precip doesn't look amazing, but this is due more to differences in timing more than anything at this point. precip could end up robust with a thermal gradient like that

GFS improved pretty dramatically at 06z, especially out west. a bit far too far S, but this is a major overrunning event for the MA verbatim hopefully it's not a blip. seems to be more in line with other guidance. this is our first legit shot IMO

March 2018 is another good example of a prolific -PNA/-NAO month for much of the northeast and northern MA. there was a NESIS storm that gave N MD more than 10"

a good recent example of a -PNA/-NAO that worked in the northern MA was in late Jan into mid Feb 2021. the NYC metro into NJ saw a historic blizzard and a few other storms, bringing them to 26" on the month. yes, it wasn't great for you guys, but again, that's a matter of luck IMO. if the confluence associated with that storm was a bit slower or farther S, it would have been you guys getting smoked this is honestly quite similar to the late Dec pattern this year. again, just goes to show how much of this is really just dependent on luck, especially the farther S you go. as variance increases, the more things need to line up correctly. this pattern could have easily produced a major snowstorm, but the devil was in the details. what can you do?

the pattern will have lots of cold air to the north and waves tracking along a boundary. legit arctic air in SE Canada and activity is all you can ask for. seeing the EC lit up with greens on the 5 day precip anomaly like that is nice could it go up in smoke? sure! even the best patterns do every now and then. but there’s also the possibility for a large overrunning event with the mood in here you’d think we’d be looking at a blowtorch when it’s far from the opposite

roads covered in Morristown

also, most setups fail in one way or another in the Mid-Atlantic up to NYC. that's why we average 15-30" a winter and not 40-60" like New England. most setups fail and just bring rain. snow is a relative rarity, especially in crappy years

that is an unrealistic expectation at this range

...they're OP runs. what's the issue here? there is going to be a lot of variance. as long as the signal remains on the ensembles, it's not a big deal

that's just one ensemble run, though. the 00z GEFS looked good, as did all of the other ensemble means at 00z. there are going to be fluctuations, but the general look has remained very consistent

not sure why there’s so much despair here over a cold gradient pattern. makes no sense

a "cutter pattern" and a pattern where you can get a cutter (again, like 80-90% of patterns) are two different things this is a cutter pattern... what we're seeing now. not even close to what we'll be seeing, especially in terms of cold air

you risk cutters in like 90% of patterns though. this is a good to great pattern for you guys depending on latitude, the source region is ice cold and the split flow should allow for southern stream waves to clash with the cold airmass. active with lots of cold high pressure nearby often leads to success but yes, this is not a "loaded" pattern like what we'd see with a west-based -NAO or a full latitude -EPO/+PNA

this is great from a synoptic perspective split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open

in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open

you have to take what the guidance is giving you. the pattern progression shown by all major ensembles is good, and downplaying it because of what happened weeks ago isn’t a good way to forecast. by that logic, those that forecasted the Blizzard of 2016 would’ve been called crazy since that winter was so warm beforehand persistence always looks genius until it falls flat on its face