brooklynwx99

look at how the strengthening block elongates the TPV and shifts it farther W... this is really important for maintaining a favorable airmass as well as providing NS energy to phase with. this would also help the trough over AK retrograde along with it a bit

there has been a consistent trend to amplify the ridging out west... this is a really amplified look. we can work with this the stronger blocking has also helped to elongate the EPV and shift it farther SW, which helps for a possible phase

GFS is quite interesting for early next week... really close here to buckling the trough obviously, this won't do it this run, but continued amplification of the PNA ridge would allow this to work. something to keep an eye on

as far as anything to keep half an eye on over the next few days, I suppose the wave early next week would be worth it it's too progressive verbatim, but this is the type of thing that models do a pretty bad job with at this range. this is a pretty strong S/W and could pose a threat if it rounds the corner. obviously, this is difficult given the +PNA deamplifying, but this could change given the lead time so, pretty low chance, but it's something to peek at given the very cold air in place as well as a regime change as the block fades also worth it given that we're going to absolutely torch after this chance through the New Year

patterns don’t guarantee results. i would assume you’d know that with your infinite knowledge happy you crawled back out of your hole though. really need those extra five shit posts a day

@Rjay i'm not sure why that concept gets lost on people... it's not difficult to understand

lots of people don't understand that a great pattern only increases odds so there might be a 2-5% chance on any given day in Dec 15 - Jan 15 that NYC sees over 6" of snow. in this pattern, it's more like 40-60%, which is astronomically better, but you still have room to fail. it's not a guarantee, and we've gotten unlucky

yeah, the monster storm did materialize, just a matter of 300 miles is the difference between a screaming cutter and a KU frustrating, but it is what it is. hopefully we can get a follow up wave behind it

take your frustration out on something else. go punch a pillow or something i’m not happy about this either, but it’s the weather. c’est la vie

God I cannot wait for that Nino next year it'll be like a weight lifted off of everyone's shoulders

haha fair. tough to communicate tone via text @Damage In Tolland but yeah to answer your question there are a couple shots at a wave after this one, but I don't even wanna think about those right now

lmao I try to contribute and add value and this is what I get? thanks

FWIW the ICON still looks to be in the GFS's camp

i’m out with my friends, dude

the ECMWF has made a definite shift towards the GFS in its handling of the AK vort much more amplified

thanks for understanding. i’ll refrain from now on - unless it’s egregious hahaha I really don’t know what to think here. I still think everything is on the table. the foreign models do give me pause but the GFS suite is holding strong and other models are ticking. the GEFS is insane this is going to be a biggggg weekend

the GEFS mean snowfall is another improvement from 18z

sorry… did not mean to come off as judgemental. just want everyone to keep a level head as much as possible this is going to be a doozy to track and if one invests too much emotionally, it’s going to be a bad time. trust me, I have prepared for the GFS to have egg on its face and for everyone to rain… I would probably rage a bit too

GEFS has less of a W lean, it appears

the angst over a 70 mile difference between rain and snow at day 7 is quite silly, too I feel like people just have to take a couple days and let this play out. we'll know what's up by Monday, most likely

hilarious when comparing to the 18z EPS. like what the fuck it's a wholesale synoptic feature that just isn't there on the EPS at 5 days out! crazy one of these models is going to be really, really, really wrong

I'm just happy that the GFS is digging in its heels. something has to give, and it doesn't seem to be the GFS right now we can work with the GFS for sure at 7 days out. brings significant wintry precip and it still has a lot of issues

after the hellacious front end thump? that's like 8" in 6 hours for most

GFS looks amazing weaker initial S/W and the TPV is much stronger, which will provide more confluence

looks like the GFS might actually have the right idea here. not budging from its idea at 18z at all if anything, the TPV lobe is a touch stronger