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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I can't understand for the life of my why there isn't more of a confluent response over the NE US. it doesn't sit right with me, which is why I'm leaning on this correcting. like it's just not a pattern you'd expect there... you'd expect a coast to coast trough with the -EPO in place as well
  2. brooklynwx99
    no, just think it's funny how consistently awful the GFS is. gave me a laugh this morning
  3. brooklynwx99
    thank you GFS, very cool!
  4. brooklynwx99
    the persistent Ninas help keep the western Atlantic warm in the same way that the insanely persistent +PNA/-EPO in 2013-2015 baked SSTs off the WC. generally the overall pattern drives the SSTs, but I'm sure there's a bit of a feedback loop going on right now that would break once a Nino forces a persistent SE trough
  5. brooklynwx99
    damn. weather is some serious shit
  6. brooklynwx99
    the system around the end of the month is probably our next legitimate threat. there is relatively high confidence on there being both a vigorous S/W moving through the Plains as well as a strong 50/50 in place to establish confluence. the -NAO itself isn't established, so the longevity of the 50/50 is a bit tenuous, but it may be very strong and do the job. this might be a NAO phase change event, which does lend itself to more dynamic solutions multiple members of the GEFS and GEPS end up redeveloping a strong SLP off the coast. it's the best synoptic setup we've had in a while (not saying much), and it's approaching the 7 day barrier, so it's worth monitoring IMO
  7. brooklynwx99
    the system around the end of the month is probably our next legitimate threat. there is relatively high confidence on there being both a vigorous S/W moving through the Plains as well as a strong 50/50 in place to establish confluence. the -NAO itself isn't established, so the longevity of the 50/50 is a bit tenuous, but it may be very strong and do the job. this might be a NAO phase change event, which does lend itself to more dynamic solutions multiple members of the GEFS and GEPS end up redeveloping a strong SLP off the coast. it's the best synoptic setup we've had in a while (not saying much), and it's approaching the 7 day barrier, so it's worth monitoring IMO
  8. brooklynwx99
    GFS made a nice shift towards a more amplified shortwave for early next week this may lead to snowfall from the shortwave in focus, but this also will lead to more confluence for the wave over the SW US one of these two waves is our next legit threat IMO. the stronger the first one is, the better. could lead to two storms instead of none
  9. brooklynwx99
    you could say that for anyone else here that does any kind of medium to long range forecasting
  10. brooklynwx99
    OP run at 384 hours
  11. brooklynwx99
    just for shits and giggles, this is what March 2018 actually looked on modeling around the same lead time. retrograding Scandinavian HP that moves towards the Davis Strait. a SE ridge actually does pop, but it is quickly flattened as the block moves westward and the ridging over the Aleutians creeps into AK the PNA is also garbage the entire time. there is a persistent trough over the WC, kind of like what we're seeing now. however, the -NAO was able to overcome it and lead to a great stretch of weather the main difference here is that the strength and location of the block isn't nearly as ironed down as it was in March 2018. if we do get a highly anomalous, west-based -NAO, which is certainly a possibility, then we could have a very nice pattern in place for the first few weeks of March. if the blocking is too weak or too east-based, which are also both legit possibilities, then the SE ridge will flex and we see no definitive change in our weather. I do like the AK ridge showing up on all three ensembles heading into March. this lowers the AO and EPO, leading to more cold air and a much more favorable pattern I am inclined to believe that the west-based blocking scenario is legit due to the typical Scandinavian HP progression... we've seen it so far this winter. we shall see. I understand the pessimism, as this winter has been horrendous, but there is the chance of an exciting pattern unfolding and just to be clear, I am not calling for anything like 2018 to happen. that was a unicorn of a month. just think that there are some similarities that are worth stating
  12. brooklynwx99
    if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong
  13. brooklynwx99
    it's early March. it's a climatologically snowier period than much of December, that would be fine. late March I would agree, but that's not an issue at this time of year if you have strong blocking you can snow to the coast until March 20th or so
  14. brooklynwx99
    idk about "blocking"... this is a signal for a legit west-based retrograding block. about as strong as you'll see
  15. brooklynwx99
    I don't see a signal like this evaporating. this is probably the best way to get a legit west-based block. it's strengthening, moving forward in time, and bolstered by the effects of the SSW will we get anything out of it? who knows, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a large storm if this block does indeed come to fruition
  16. brooklynwx99
    a -PNA is fine when you have a west-based block like that. east-based would let a SE ridge pop, but I think the -PNA would just keep the pattern active with a Davis Strait block as depicted
  17. brooklynwx99
    I am totally fine with the -PNA there if we have a west based block. wavelengths are short enough that it's not as much of an issue as Dec 2021, for example. also, it would give a continuous stream of shortwaves to roll underneath. great pattern verbatim
  18. brooklynwx99
    the EPS now has a classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. I know that everyone is snakebitten, but this block is becoming stronger and moving up in time hard not to get a bit excited when you see a retrograding block like this
  19. brooklynwx99
    the EPS now has a classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. I know that everyone is snakebitten, but this block is becoming stronger and moving up in time hard not to get a bit excited when you see a retrograding block like this
  20. brooklynwx99
    this is a pretty classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. same way we got that December block
  21. brooklynwx99
    i agree with you. was just being sarcastic good to see that typical response to blocking here and not that SE ridge crap
  22. brooklynwx99
    nah it’s not happening because persistence yadda yadda yadda we’re all just weenies
  23. brooklynwx99
    nah. base state. no more snow
  24. brooklynwx99
    really nice change for the GEFS. that block keeps getting stronger… great signal for that range
  25. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it’s really when the block decays. that’s when you get the big dogs historically
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