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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    we can see an amped solution like the GFS, don’t get me wrong however, acting like an amped solution is a foregone conclusion is a bit ridiculous at this range. look how Monday’s storm has trended over the last couple of days for NJ… way more confluence over the last two model cycles. anything from a cutter to suppression to a MECS is on the table, as per usual 6 days out
  2. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is absolutely insane
  3. brooklynwx99
    GEFS did the same thing and it’s had two colder runs in a row
  4. brooklynwx99
    meh, it’s one run. GEFS did the same crap at 06z just to revert back colder. wouldn’t make too much out of it unless it consistently showed that
  5. brooklynwx99
    yeah the confluence keeps ticking stronger. makes sense tho, as the models are probably “feeling” the developing block, this is the adjustment you’d expect them to make, if anything I would feel great if I was in CT, especially Valley west. a solid 4-8” event is becoming more of a probability
  6. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is improved again… more confluence over SE Canada and a slightly weaker S/W lead to a colder, farther S track. this is a monster signal for this range
  7. brooklynwx99
    as expected, snowfall is farther SE. this is an absolute monster signal for this range
  8. brooklynwx99
    colder and farther S as a result of those changes. this is the second GEFS run in a row to make this shift
  9. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is more favorable than 12z… lower heights in SE Canada and a slightly less amped S/W
  10. brooklynwx99
    I have said nothing even close to resembling that. not even close to the same thing there's a difference between comparing a potential pattern to one that has produced KUs in the past with like 10 different caveats applied and whatever that post was to start the thread. they aren't comparable
  11. brooklynwx99
  12. brooklynwx99
    EPS is really nice. stronger S/W but also more confluence, leads to a colder, stronger storm
  13. brooklynwx99
    that's why you just don't say things like that more than 48 - 72 hours unless you have a pristine synoptic setup
  14. brooklynwx99
    I am really not one to bump stuff, but omfg
  15. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS also has a legit KU pattern once towards the 10th but we can put that on the backburner for now
  16. brooklynwx99
    it's really tough to say at this point in time. I'm leaning towards the GEPS/EPS only because they have more confluence, which is what you'd expect with a developing block. this isn't really relevant to you guys, but this has been happening with the Monday system... confluence has been steadily increasing over the last day or so, which is leading to a farther S track not to say that this will happen here, but I would lean towards that rather than a complete lack of confluence
  17. brooklynwx99
    wow
  18. brooklynwx99
    there's enough cold air if the SLP runs to the south with all of that confluence over SE Canada
  19. brooklynwx99
    this is what you want. stout S/W over Ark-La-Tex with lots of confluence over SE Canada
  20. brooklynwx99
    just a massive signal for a storm of some sort on the 4th
  21. brooklynwx99
    definitely better. not great, but a big improvement. definitely more similar to 00z than 06z
  22. brooklynwx99
    improvement on the GEFS... lower heights out ahead of the trough and in SE Canada. should be colder
  23. brooklynwx99
    I would consider this a general improvement to the height field over SE Canada. OP runs gonna OP run this cuts because the GFS phases with the NS vort in MN/IA. if that vort kicks ahead and interacts with the ULL in SE Canada, this would be much farther S. really no way to tell with that kind of stuff at this range
  24. brooklynwx99
    yeah, climo won't matter as much when you have cross-polar flow like that. you can snow until the 20th to the coast with that look. the 10-20th period does look very good, but we'll see if we can cash in on the 4th beforehand. tons of time to go
  25. brooklynwx99
    seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim
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