brooklynwx99

CMC holding serve with booting the S/W out... this looks very good

really nice trend here with the ULL from the Rex block and the S/W of focus over the last few runs... we've see increased separation between the two features, and 12z is even showing ridging popping up between the two... this would allow for the S/W to get booted E instead of getting trapped W this is what the ECMWF/CMC ENS had, and hopefully it's a sign that they're handling the pattern better

here are the effects of that small change only a day later... seems like a legit shift towards the more favorable pattern evolution

@Ralph Wiggum @CAPE really nice trend here with the ULL from the Rex block and the S/W of focus over the last few runs... we've see increased separation between the two features, and 12z is even showing ridging popping up between the two... this would allow for the S/W to get booted E instead of getting trapped W this is what the ECMWF/CMC ENS had, and hopefully it's a sign that they're handling the pattern better

that’s not a “real” ridge. not a SE ridge at all with the 50/50 in place. it’s actually well below average temperature wise because of the 50/50, and the entire CONUS goes into the freezer as the WC trough gets kicked. that’s going to happen, it’s just a matter of it being quicker like the EPS/GEPS or slower like the GEFS not a cause for worry IMO

the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races

the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races

the GEPS is in agreement for the most part but the GEFS is stubborn. it's been coming around, tho. looks a lot better than it did yesterday that is a classic pattern evolution. look how similar it is to the pattern progression for NYC's 18"+ storms they both have the anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait, the deep 50/50 ULL, a -EPO that promotes cross-polar flow, and a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Pacific NW

and as a result...

considerably more confluence on the 18z GEFS... makes sense with the WB -NAO establishing itself. this is the one thing that could really help this storm out

I wouldn't be worried about that. IMO I would be more worried about suppression than cutters given the pig of a 50/50 ULL in place

I understand. this winter has blown and I suppose I'm one of the few that can always shake it off and keep pushing as if it hasn't been a failure with that being said, I do think it's different this time for reasons that have been stated over the last day or so. my advice to most that are gun shy is to not really hold this stuff in high regard until like Friday, but keep it in the back of your mind I do think the -NAO and -EPO blocks are happening... it's just a matter of ejecting the trough, and we'll see what the ENS think in a few days. the EPS is the most gung-ho on this, followed by the GEPS and then the GEFS (which has trended much better since yesterday). if it leaves the W US... game on. if not, we may need to wait a bit longer. just the way it is at this range, unfortunately

trust me, I don't believe anything like that will happen, it's far too early to say anything like that. however, it would be foolish to look at that and not acknowledge the potential there... it's certainly high end. could it go up in flames? sure, any pattern can. but the one advertised has a much lower chance of failing and a much higher chance of producing a large wintry storm

generally, yes, but this depends on where the 50/50 sets up. NNE/CNE is by no means out of the game

it's the largest ensemble that's run on the consistently best performing model lmao

not sure if you can even draw it up better at this range. this is ridiculous

i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy

EPS looks amazing. what's the issue here? it even made positive changes compared to 00z

aleet aleet on the ECMWF

GFS and CMC ENS are maintaining the same high-end pattern progression around the 10th of March as the S/W over the WC ejects and the -NAO decays over N central Canada. there's even signs of ridging into the SW US I expect the EPS to hold, but we'll see in an hour or so

yeah, the 06z GEFS illustrates this well

it gets flattened on the ENS as the S/W in the west gets booted into the Plains. it will pop at first, though

there was a significant snowstorm over NNJ, S NY, and CT today, so the blocking has produced for the NE US. sorry you guys got unlucky, can't nail down specific regions that are impacted 10 days out. sucks, but it is what it is when it comes to LR forecasting be as pessimistic as you want for whatever reason you see fit, but don't shit on people that are posting in good faith because you're annoyed about the weather. that's petty also, that post was saying talking about how the -NAO would occur, which it has in earnest. it was a good forecast in that regard... the two patterns are very similar aside from typical near-term magnifications the post doesn't even mention any snowfall impacts. at least quote the whole post if you're going to bump troll, dude

it’s also worth noting that the GEFS made a big step towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to the strength of the blocking and the orientation of the 50/50 ULL this is very encouraging, as it was a bit of a holdout yesterday at 12z. much more ENS agreement now

also, the AK blocking is forced by the strong MJO pulse into Phases 7/8 and the -NAO is forced by the SSWE. there is much more confidence in the HL blocking occurring due to the anomalous pattern drivers… this is not a head fake