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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    really nice -EPO/+PNA showing up on the EPS
  2. brooklynwx99
    i’m pretty sure this is going to couple well in the N Pac. 500mb (which is generally driven by ENSO) drives SSTs, not the other way around
  3. brooklynwx99
    out to lunch, apparently
  4. brooklynwx99
    this is how you get it to snow early on. nice cross polar flow there probably a transient pattern but it would be nice to get on the board early
  5. brooklynwx99
    i mean, this is what i've been thinking for a month or so now. seasonals generally look like this and so did your blend IIRC
  6. brooklynwx99
    guidance is largely following analog blends, which gives me more confidence in it the JMA is aggressive, but with how far west the VP has been, back the Aleutian low up and that's what you get
  7. brooklynwx99
    if the Nina lag plays a major role this winter, i am never long range forecasting ever again
  8. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t take this exact solution to heart. just get ready to see a good amount of cutters over the next month or so. that’s the Nino December M.O.
  9. brooklynwx99
    i doubt it. it’s probably getting back to near normal once we head into December, and then there is the chance for weakening. this is a temporary spike
  10. brooklynwx99
    i agree with that. it’s just that the main issue in stronger El Niños (if they do end up sucking) is that there are a lot of coastal storms with no cold air. that was 1997-98’s issue
  11. brooklynwx99
    for December yes, but i wouldn’t expect cutter patterns as we head later into winter
  12. brooklynwx99
    i think that’s kinda silly. i’m not sure how it would play out like that in actuality
  13. brooklynwx99
    i will say this… if December turns out good, it’s probably going to be a rocking winter 2002 and 2009 would immediately fit the bill if December produces
  14. brooklynwx99
    this was the hypothesis that a big block with Nino forcing would work a lot better. nice ridge over BC
  15. brooklynwx99
    holy shit lmao
  16. brooklynwx99
    the catch is that that is a Nino pattern features a trough in the west
  17. brooklynwx99
    like why does everything have to be so declarative? it makes no sense. it’s okay to not know what’s going to happen
  18. brooklynwx99
    inevitable? three consecutive trimonthly periods that average 2.0+? i wouldn’t consider that inevitable at all
  19. brooklynwx99
    C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run
  20. brooklynwx99
    C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run
  21. brooklynwx99
    i’m still not sure why people are so engrained in one camp. this is an event in a changing world and there’s something a bit off with all of the CC discussion and how it’s messing with everything, people vehemently insisting that this is a textbook event is kinda silly
  22. brooklynwx99
    C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run
  23. brooklynwx99
    i respectfully disagree. we haven’t had a legit Nino in years and those often force a SE trough regardless of the Pacific if we do get a strong -NAO this year, it will be much more effective than it was last year
  24. brooklynwx99
    then once the SPV is perturbed, that’s when you get the late Jan into Feb blocking accounting for lag
  25. brooklynwx99
    there is zero reason to believe we will have a dry winter
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