brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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no, it's five consecutive months. this is the definition i've most commonly seen, but there isn't one that's the gold standard. NOAA classifies El Nino as five consecutive trimonthlies, though. 1997 and 2015 were over 2C for five straight trimonthlies
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you know that these anomalies need to persist for months, right? there have to be five consecutive months over 2C for this event to be classified as super
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looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time
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looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time
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yeah it looks like models are picking up on heat flux. would like to see this signal push into the medium range
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ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now
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ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now
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makes sense given the MJO pass through 7-8-1-2 by the time we get to mid-late month
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@GaWx look at this significant drop in SPV strength on the ECMWF extended compared to yesterday
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i mean, we've only been in two legitimate El Ninos in the last decade, so it would be rare given the low frequency. I don't think it's a coincidence that we've already gotten a 8-1-2 pass given that this event is strong
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the SPV is strong now, but it lessens to normal strength as we go on... normal is fine, as the SPV and TPV don't have to be coupled all the time
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just saying, if we do indeed get that look in late December, it's off to the races IMO. can't think of a moderate / strong / super Nino that had a good pattern early to not continue it later in the winter the ones that started off with a good pattern were often prolific. 2002 and 2009 are the most prominent examples. of course, we will need to see if this is voodoo or not
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yeah, no more pesky SW trough BS. pure Nino SE trough
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this pattern makes sense given the MJO progression. pretty awesome look here with split flow undercutting a -EPO
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if the mean forcing remains in these areas through the winter, which is certainly possible, I would argue yes
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lmao Fisher was talking about how it would be 60F 7 days out while Boston was seeing a historic blizzard in Jan 2022. dude is something else
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lmao the weenie from Kevin. i guess he's not a fan of MJO wave propagation. who knew
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the forcing gravitating towards the C Pac / western IO is very encouraging... those are the sweet spots. the shittier canonical EP Nino years had forcing in the E Pac, but that seems to get brushed off by the twitter geniuses
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it does shift back to 8-1-2 once into mid-late month... colder weather then ensues, most likely. this is assuming the VP is correct
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as the MJO cycles through phases 3 and 4, we'll see a relaxation in the pattern early-mid Dec... could get quite warm
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that's literally where the Modoki events focus their forcing too. lmao
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it can, but snows that rare are rare for a reason. you need a lottttt to go right
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honestly, even with a perfect track and "cold" air relative to average, it would likely be too warm to amount to much of anything until like Dec 15th
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heh
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i mean, we’re probably going to see weak intrusions into 4 and 5 but as the Nino strengthens and couples further, 7-8-1-2 will be the main phases
