brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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why are we talking about a Nina background state during a borderline super Nino? I swear, it doesn't snow last year and people are just saying random shit at this point. there is no such thing as a "Nina background state"
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my point was that this isn't a SE ridge. they're height rises out ahead of a developing storm system. two different things
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that isn't a SE ridge. that was just ensemble disagreement on how strong the system would get. stronger solutions verified, and there are height rises ahead of the system over the NE. that doesn't have much to do with a lingering SE ridge tendency or anything
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yeah the Pacific improves pretty dramatically once after the 5th
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the Pacific really is night and day from last year. great to see
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still a very nice look once into early-mid month. strong -NAO, ridging showing up into AK, and a deep E US trough. not the coldest, as has been discussed, but this can certainly get it done
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no, i could never haha the boards are enough for me
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i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino
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i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino
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you do have PTSD most likely. luckily the Nina paradigm is over. rejoice!
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what exactly else would you like to use? the upcoming pattern looks great. if it was warm, people would have no question about it being right. it’s a silly argument the blocking develops inside day 5. the features that force this pattern are moving into the short range
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there is always going to be a strong GoA low. this is still a colder than average pattern with a +PNA and blocking. really not much to complain about
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the SPV and TPV are not always well coupled. we are already seeing this the fact that such an anomalous -NAO is going to develop bodes well for the entire winter. and a weak SPV does at least help blocking develop when combined with the -QBO and Nino forcing
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all major ensembles are in agreement and they all look great
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all major ensembles still look great and are in agreement
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some weenie drew the GEPS in their basement
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the -NAO develops at like day 5. how exactly is this getting pushed back?
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i wouldn’t be nearly as annoyed if he wasn’t so sanctimonious about the whole thing beforehand
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that is the exception rather than the rule. a strong -NAO almost always overpowers unless the Pacific truly sucks
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i know everyone always whines about the Pacific, but the -NAO and resultant confluence is king for you guys
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yeah. all in? no very intrigued and getting a bit excited at the potential? yes i would wait another few days to let the -NAO hit the short range
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great trend in the -NAO over the last model cycle
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one day trend in the blocking is very nice. this does not look like a head fake
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one day trend in the blocking is very nice. this does not look like a head fake
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same. i do LR forecasting at my company with a couple others and 2009 was a top analog since the summer
