brooklynwx99

Comparing a pre-loading composite of all recent EC landfalls to the current pattern, I think that the risk for a landfall is unlikely outside of Nova Scotia. Looking at the pattern from a week out until landfall, we see an amplified trough digging into the Plains that leads to a strong blocking high forming just NE of Maine. This is not the case here. There is a weak, progressive trough that moves into the OH Valley that doesn't serve to establish a blocking high at all. In fact, the strongest positive anomalies are north of the Great Lakes. The rather zonal flow over Nova Scotia is probably why this storm is going to escape east... without that strong blocking high the landfall scenario looks unlikely without a large change in the pattern. Even a capture scenario would be possible if the trough dug more, but the pattern just doesn't look amplified enough.

wasn’t there west leaning forcing that led to the highly favorable month-long stretch from mid Jan into Feb? I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence

for much of coastal NE south of Boston I would say so

most winters only have 3-6 weeks of legit activity

I expect December to be pretty awful nobody can really talk after the 2014-15 fiasco with weenie suicides abound in mid-Jan before Boston got 100" of snow in like 6 weeks

new ONI at +1.1 for JJA, but the relative ONI is only +0.57, which is a difference of over half a degree! so although this has breached moderate territory, this is still acting more like a weak event... encouraging for winter

new ONI at +1.1 for JJA, but the relative ONI is only +0.57, which is a difference of over half a degree! so although this has breached moderate territory, this is still acting more like a weak event... encouraging for winter

if we see like OND at 1.8, NDJ at 1.9, and DJF at 1.7, we average +1.8 ONI and a MEI of like +1.3-1.5. sounds good to me this is almost certainly why the models are showing a moderate Nino with west-leaning forcing pattern rather than a canonical super Nino pattern

ONI for JJA is officially +1.1, so we have cracked moderate territory for now... will need to see the two next readings, but a moderate is certain however, the RONI is only +0.57! this is a 0.53 degree difference, which is significant. the MEI will also likely lag around there, meaning that this event is still behaving like a low-end weak event https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

that's because Dec skews Jan/Feb warm, which are normal to slightly below normal also, seasonals are almost always too warm overall. it's rare to ever see solidly below average temps in the CONUS look at the CanSIPS for last year... it got the warmth in the E US right, but it was way too warm in the W US

I think this is part of the reason why the seasonals are showing what they're showing

look, I think this can end up as a very low end super Nino, but there just isn't much in the way of tropical forcing or WWBs that'll keep it going as of now. I can see things stagnating as we head through the month

I'm not acting like a dick at all. stop projecting where did I even spike the ball? you don't think "Paul Roundy told me" is at least a little bit funny? like come on. if someone came in here and said that JB told them it would be a cold and snowy winter you'd be foaming at the mouth and biting down on your keyboard talking about how vapid and asinine the person is lmao

Paul Roundy super Nino

new ECMWF seasonal looks like the CanSIPS. strong blocking with split flow after a mild December

I'm still good with 1.7-1.9 on the trimonthly ONI with the MEI likely peaking at like 1.4-1.6

seems like we're coming to a consensus on the Nino strength here as the ECMWF significantly weakened the peak

if the seasonals are still showing this for the October runs, then that's likely the point where they're likely right on how things will generally go. I think we are approaching that point

it’s probably a down cycle with some CC sprinkled in there

as long as the PNA just remains neutral, blocking will be a thousand times more effective than it was last year

overall, I can see the winter ending ip slightly warmer than average, but I expect February to be cold. it shows a typical back loaded winter… a Dec torch will offset the later cold departures

well, that’s one of the reasons i’m a bit weenie-ish here. i forecast for a living and i need to pull in the reins at work so I let it out more here

sorry, but with all due respect, i’m not sure if you can really comment on a pretty well-respected forecaster’s track record and talk about how horrible it is when for the last few years you’d talk about how every shortwave hitting the atlantic would turn into a historic Boston blizzard

people are going to be shitting themselves in December. I can see it already