NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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Definitely might’ve missed some earlier, but here’s the update. Waiting to debut a new one just for the obs thread, haha.
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don’t check the 00z HRRR.
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my poor Wahoos are getting killed.
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NAM is super amped. Probably irrelevant for most of us, might help with Wednesday though.
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Good to see ya!
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Heh. 18z is definitely colder than 12z at the surface and at 850. To be honest, if it went the other way I'd be calling it noise, but since it confirms my biases I'll say its a trend. Control is hideous though. Better hope we can toss it.
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I’m actually surprised the individual members/mean don’t look slightly better given these panels.
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18z looks like it holds.
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This might be an appreciable difference from 12z. I'll let someone smart comment on it. 18z: 12z:
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Totally forgot the 18z doesn't go past 90. I was refreshing like a maniac, haha. I'm not smart enough to extrapolate but I'm not seeing any obvious warning signs here. I will say the CAD looks better on the 12z.
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fwiw. slightly more west than 06z but there are some big members messing with the mean again (986mb over Hagerstown, for example). I'd say there are more along the Chesapeake than we'd like but it's more than workable.
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It may be the 18z stress but if we get another "where are Bob and Showme" message I'll have to add it to the Bingo board. I don't think we know and we may never know. Been a weird year. Hopefully they show up but if they don't, we do out best without them and hope they are doing well and are healthy wherever they are at.
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This might ease some concerns. GFS itself is an outlier. Trended warmer, but there aren't lows over the Potomac. Guessing that one member just south of D.C. might be messing with some of the ens data.
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This is a kind of interesting product. Really puts a dash in hopes for surface temps to cooperate fully outside of the mountains, at least with this run.
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18z GEFS is also less wet, which can't be helpful. Rates were big for success near I-95. Looking back at 12z even, temps near the Beltway got to 2C during the middle of the storm.
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Haha, if that's at me... totally fair. I'm genuinely just trying to learn what to look for beyond surface maps to see what would cause the low to jog NW. But it was a silly way to ask the question.
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Anyone smart wanna say how the low can jump from OBX at hr99 and then go NW to the mouth of the Potomac at hr102? Could just be me living in denial but it seems like a weird track.
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For posterity (for when it ends up totally wrong, hahahaa....)
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This is a bad run for I-95.
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SNOW HAMMER ZONE
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don't think ICON 850mbs are available but almost everyone loses 925s, other than the mountains. Way different than GFS/EURO. Honestly, I think it's tossable.
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ICON (I know) has been pretty consistent with snow to sleet/FRZA. Just trying to recall the past couple years, I know the ICON has advertised big FRZA storms before. None have ever come to fruition.
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I honestly don't know what to make of it. Runs once a day and by the time it comes out it's always old guidance. Makes it tough to to discuss!
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EPS was flatter/less amped at 12z than 06z, FWIW
