NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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fwiw. slightly more west than 06z but there are some big members messing with the mean again (986mb over Hagerstown, for example). I'd say there are more along the Chesapeake than we'd like but it's more than workable.
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It may be the 18z stress but if we get another "where are Bob and Showme" message I'll have to add it to the Bingo board. I don't think we know and we may never know. Been a weird year. Hopefully they show up but if they don't, we do out best without them and hope they are doing well and are healthy wherever they are at.
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This might ease some concerns. GFS itself is an outlier. Trended warmer, but there aren't lows over the Potomac. Guessing that one member just south of D.C. might be messing with some of the ens data.
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This is a kind of interesting product. Really puts a dash in hopes for surface temps to cooperate fully outside of the mountains, at least with this run.
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18z GEFS is also less wet, which can't be helpful. Rates were big for success near I-95. Looking back at 12z even, temps near the Beltway got to 2C during the middle of the storm.
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Haha, if that's at me... totally fair. I'm genuinely just trying to learn what to look for beyond surface maps to see what would cause the low to jog NW. But it was a silly way to ask the question.
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Anyone smart wanna say how the low can jump from OBX at hr99 and then go NW to the mouth of the Potomac at hr102? Could just be me living in denial but it seems like a weird track.
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For posterity (for when it ends up totally wrong, hahahaa....)
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This is a bad run for I-95.
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SNOW HAMMER ZONE
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don't think ICON 850mbs are available but almost everyone loses 925s, other than the mountains. Way different than GFS/EURO. Honestly, I think it's tossable.
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ICON (I know) has been pretty consistent with snow to sleet/FRZA. Just trying to recall the past couple years, I know the ICON has advertised big FRZA storms before. None have ever come to fruition.
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I honestly don't know what to make of it. Runs once a day and by the time it comes out it's always old guidance. Makes it tough to to discuss!
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EPS was flatter/less amped at 12z than 06z, FWIW
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we get slammed at the end. verbatim (i know EURO gust product is bad) but it could justify a Blizzard Watch for D.C. proper
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12z: 00z:
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oh yeah. this is an infinitely better run.
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we get crushed in the deform. 12z: 00z:
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rates flip it to snow/rain/sleet for the 1-95 corridor. Not shocking IMO. Looks slightly mixier than previous runs but based on a quick glance it looks more like noise than a trend the wrong way.
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12z is gonna be a little warmer than 00z for ground temps, but mostly looks like noise.
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