NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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GEFS held serve. Beautiful verbatim, 12z: 06z:
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I'm trusting the people who say it's our best case scenario -- we definitely get crushed in the CCB -- but the MSLP took a pretty decent jump westward. I'd still think, at least from a temp profile perspective, we could do better if we could get things to push a little more SE. That said, I'd trade 8" of meh rates for the shot of the end of that GFS run.
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Hate to be the negative person, but DCA still gets to 37 this run. It's 34 at DCA when it starts ripping at 87. Rates would overcome and probably accumulate with the depiction as is but we could still use another jolt SE. That said, we've got three days.
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Good thing it’s the 84 hour NAM! In all seriousness, it’s a possible solution. EPS has an unfortunate cluster of lows on the N /VA border around Emporia. Time to wait for a better model.
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3k has got to be interesting for you. I see deck pics in this thread’s future.
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this would be the furthest west GEFS member by a good deal. Choosing to hug the GEFS and say we’ve still got room to improve here.
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Morning everyone. Headed back to sleep but my dog woke me up. Glad to see the 06z GFS held down the fort. Happy to say the 06x GEFS was a complete repudiation of the 00z EPS. On my phone and the maps always get shrunk on my phone so I won’t bother posting, but every single member has the LP offshore OBX and lows never really get all that near the Chesapeake Bay.
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06z HRRR held serve [emoji2957]
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lotta individual ens jumped NW from 18z to 00z. hopefully 06z EPS brings better tidings. Night y’all.
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Haha, it was mostly a tease. Deform rakes you at the end for sure though. Obviously wasn’t an ideal run for most of us.
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darn. It was worth an ask. Never know what’ll happen unless you ask.
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can I have the SE trend? Asking for a friend.
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real fringe job for ya
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This may not fully be the problem but it's gotta be part of it. What a mess. 18z ens for comparison
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recovers a bit at 99 once it figures out that it wants the low in a better spot for us.
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can’t seem to figure out where the SLP will develop from the looks of it. definitely trying to justify an off run but it looks wacky.
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might be the first run to push up the start time in awhile. first flakes at 87hrs
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Para always comes out a day late and only at 00z. That's why its really hard to assess its usefulness, IMO.
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I liked that model so much better when it had a crazy cold bias.
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if that 18z HRRR didn't bring people to this thread, nothing will.
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00z GEFS is a marked improvement from 18z, which really wasn't a bad run. Nice.
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We tack on some extra pixie dust on Friday, too. Beautiful run. Pleasure being here with y'all.
