I think the general idea that you'll run an LP center offshore while a second one develops close in under the primary U/L forcing seems pretty reasonable and not likely a model phantom. Out this way the 3km solution isn't bad verbatim, but we'd almost like to see that convection rocket even further east and faster and let that second low have some space to breathe. Of course, if the initial LP were a model phantom, that wouldn't be terrible either.