FXWX

Hey Walt; nice job as usual. What do you make of the UKMET being so persistent with its deep and intensifying system???

Town Crews just pulled off the road until winds subside; will respond only to life-threatening situations!

Across my area Burlington, CT; very impressive tree damage town-wide... Multiple reports of trees taking down or snapping poles; with multiple poles being snapped at the same location... we actually have town work crews that cannot get out of some areas since more trees have come down and blocked all their travel routes.

still good here...

Old Lyme

Add the July 10, 1989 to the similar setup; morning WF passage and then monster afternoon / early evening event...

Check out live August airport cam... https://www.maineinstrumentflight.com/fbo/webcams/

Not completely; maybe state DOT, but I have several DPW crews that have used it when bitter cold periods were in play; used quite a bit Jan/Feb 2015.

Many of the new treatments are less or ineffective during very cold periods, which are common across NNE; sand allows for better traction when treatments would not be effective. Even down here in SNE, some DPW crews have a reserve of sand to use if needed during very cold periods.

Great job with your forecast... can you share the link (url) to the Accumulated Snowfall Departure map?

Hey Walt... didn't have time to play with the scaling but here are the 500 mb mean and anomaly maps for Dec 76 through Feb 77...

Globally (NH), we have gone through a remarkably long stretch of a relatively flat flow with zero blocking, no persistent large-scale amplified trough / ridge couplets; no real anchor features; true arctic air has not be a regular visitor to the middle latitudes anywhere across the NH. Why??? I have no clue. Even in many of our blah / ratter winters, there were strong features causing havoc elsewhere; this year not so much. The oceans are very warm on a widespread basis though and maybe the lack of sst gradients are playing a role???

Here is Euro Omega (700) at 00z Sunday

Ok... small, localized enhanced areas; just a bit to your north OXC showing 10 mi. vis... hope you pick up a solid cover; sfc temps not helping out in many places... thanks for ob

Is your actual ob or something that was passed along? I cannot find an airport visibility ob or a highway camera showing anything approaching moderate snowfall rates? I-84 / I-95 cams showing very decent visibility?

BDL coarse sounding from 12z Euro; valid 12z Tuesday...

No disagreement with that... Ongoing winter precipitation events are almost always a cancellation, given desire of bus companies to stay off the roads when precip is still ongoing and opposition from DPW folks who do not like to have their trucks actively treating or scraping with kids standing along the sides of roads or at street corners...

The early dismissal option is the only option that is not on the table. Late openings Tuesday or cancellations are the 2 most likely outcomes... Early dismissals are in play when an event is arriving during the afternoon, not when it starts the night before or during the predawn hours.

4.5 in Burlington

Just broke the 4" depth here in Burlington...

1.7" here in Burlington; mod/hvy; 32

AccuWx Pro

The lesson that you take away from this system, and it is a lesson that has to be constantly harped about, is that modeling will more often than not do poorly on the placement of these meso bands. They will show you the well known pattern features that imply significant banding should occur, but they will struggle or just completely fail on getting the location and often the intensity of the banding correct. The upper air components were screaming banding for days with this setup and folks were living and dying each model run on where the banding was being depicted by admiring qpf or clown snowfall projection maps. In the end, the take-away is use the modeled 500/700/850 forecast tracks & configuration to forecast the likelihood of banding but only give general hints at where it might end up. Then it becomes a nowcast deal as the banding starts to tip its hand; late yesterday afternoon and very early in the evening, nowcasting using mainly the SPC meso analysis page you could see how and where the banding was going to setup. I expect the models to miss the banding location(s) more times than not; we have seen it numerous times over the years. With this system most if not all of the primary models were screaming banding if you looked at the 500/700/850 forecasts. But it almost always comes down to nowcasting for the final outcome.

Map does not accurately depict totals across western Hartford County and eastern Litchfield County; I had 15 total in Burlington (western Hartford Cty and Harwinton in eastern Litchfield Cty has 14"... BOX has not updated my total...