WxWatcher007

We rain. We rejoice.

Now that’s really interesting. If it continues on, that may allow for some greater instability to build out in the eastern MDR—something that has been a struggle in recent years.

Complete opposite of May.

Wouldn't be surprising as we move into July. Climo starts to open up the broader basin. We're starting to see the atmosphere respond to the rapidly strengthening Nino, but as mentioned before, the outrageous warming in the tropical Atlantic ups the chances of a nontraditional (read: normal to above normal) hurricane season--which would be a tremendous feat given this ENSO period. With historic warmth across the early AEW (for the uninitiated, a tropical wave) developing, and both the GEFS and EPS are in agreement (today at least) that wind shear across the MDR will be anomalously low as we close out June. However, I think the most important factor in getting the MDR going early will be instability. Right now, that's not looking particularly high right now, but likely increases over the coming weeks. For those that will be tracking, this is my annual message that as you're looking at operational and ensemble guidance, don't look for the weenie surface depictions. If you want to get a sense of discrete windows outside of the usual 500mb stuff, look at the vorticity plots. I like starting at 850mb on operational models, and the ensemble mean MSLP for the ensembles.

Go west. Go west. Go west.

Wednesday does look a little interesting

Oh yeah, definitely fantasy runs. Just have to try to watch for the broader TC genesis pattern in the last 1/3 of June.

18z ends the drought!

There’s always one doom run

.20” on the day.

From earlier. Love the smell of rain in the air.

Good day for that here too

Boring here.

Any of these storms going to be a step up from meh today?

I saw something similar last year and it was completely wrong lol. Haven’t seen it that often though. We’ll see if we get a CAG pattern around the 20th.

Not much to add other than

It is a wx ob….FU

I have a friend that could feel an attack coming and our peak was 185 today here.

This was July 7, 2002, which stuck out as the greatest smoke related air quality anomaly in central CT in about 25 years…until the last two days blew it away.

That makes sense to me. Looking up I see a thinner layer than yesterday, but on the ground and near ground it’s still very bad.

The description of the public reaction Quiet descended on city streets: The girls who sold peanuts stopped selling their wares, the fruit vendors stood stock still next to heaps of peaches and newsboys subdued their shouts.

Apocalyptic days of yore