WxWatcher007

I can’t. I just can’t.

I'm just chewing on that run. I want to see some ensemble support. That said, you can see how quickly things go from well OTS (Newfoundland exception) to a very close approach with changes in the pattern over the US and Canada. The big ULL doesn't drop down as aggressively, the retrograding ridge over the US kind of meanders, and that allows the Atlantic ridge to push the door a little more. 00z 12z Now of course, because there's no cutoff in the GL region this eventually gets kicked, but that was modestly intriguing. SHIPS does foresee a better environment further west, and the organization of Erin is pretty good for its current intensity. I think it could really pop once it's able to get enough of a convective burst to get the engine going. That said, convection continues to fire on the southern side of the storm and the track continues to come in ever so slightly south of forecast. I still think a NE impact is fantasy land, but the door for a closer approach is not fully closed. Honestly, and this is also forever out, Erin could be good for a PRE somewhere depending on how that trough eventually evolves. Just food for thought. Also, this looks like a possible threat to Newfoundland. Been saying that for days now lol.

Newfoundland in particular. They’ve been getting either glancing blows or direct hits sporadically on the op Euro and GFS.

91.1 at home along with dews…

Never count out the BoC

It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point.

Haha that line was 100% frustration from looking at my seasonal snow total this morning. It is regression and I do agree that in general winter produces most here looking at the longer arc of time. Doesn’t change the pain of losing nearly a decade to some historically bad winters. That’s time you don’t get back.

I know that’s true…but my production the last decade makes it harder than ever to discern. I checked this morning and I have more sub 20” seasons than I do 30” seasons since 2018-19, and my average is 45-50”. I certainly have more failed epic winter patterns than failed fantasy canes. It’s exceptionally tough sledding for anything interesting lately. Tropical stuff aside I think most of us are frustrated by that. I have my annual peak season forecast due by the 20th, and I’m still not sure what direction I’ll take. I do think we’re looking at another backloaded season though given the continued SAL/stability issues I knew we’d have months ago. If September is warm with a WAR, we’re in the game. Otherwise, cutoff trough season in October and hybrids are probably our only shot at anything interesting.

Solar is awesome. Barely a bill year round.

Foggy start here in the valley

Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page

Erin is rocketing along in the tropical Atlantic tonight, and despite a day of convective challenges the system is generating some deeper convection. As of now, Erin continues to tick south of forecast, and models think this south of due west motion will continue for a little longer. This is reflected in the subtle changes in the NHC track, which has ticked south over time. This shift that increased the odds that the Windward Islands, USVI, and PR receive indirect impacts, and depending on the extent and amplitude of the Atlantic ridge, it may have longer term consequences. Currently, the odds overwhelmingly favor Erin recurves before reaching the U.S. east coast. Using the Euro, I want to illustrate why. (sorry about the gif size lol) The models have been trending toward more of an Atlantic Canada risk, but of course we're far from knowing too much that far out.

New England weenies talk crazy in the tropical thread every year

Heat wave achieved here. High of 91.8° so far.

Let him go…you can’t save him

Euro recurves well east of the U.S. coast, but with the trough to the north it pulls Erin into Newfoundland. Again, long way out, but highlights the risk to Atlantic Canada.

I’m not sure it makes a difference at the end of the day with the Atlantic ridge being weakened.

Never to be found in winter

Forgetting Atlantic Canada lol. There’s a 948mb over St. John’s. Is Nick still up there?

Same. Maybe impacts in the Antilles. Perhaps a more direct impact for Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. This does not look like a steering pattern for a direct US impact.

Headlong into it

That’s exactly what a TC would look like in a stable airmass lol.

That HCCA trend is interesting

Continuing to move south of forecast

For our friends in the Antilles, this is increasingly becoming a little close for comfort. Could be some indirect impacts there that become more direct if the south shift continues. To @40/70 Benchmark’s point earlier, that can muck things up if the ridge also ends up trending stronger or the big ULL in Canada is weaker in the long range. Still a lot to sort out here.