Jump to content

WxWatcher007

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    33,616

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Just need to see that the trough isn’t an automatic kicker. This is an eternity away and purely speculative obviously but you roll the dice with this look. Trough weakens and it’s gone, trough cuts off for real and it’s a LI Express.
  2. WxWatcher007
    For this far out, I just want to see what the trough looks like, and it has potential imo.
  3. WxWatcher007
    GFS should be interesting
  4. WxWatcher007
    GFS shows you exactly what I mean. Today’s trough cuts off and draws Debby north. If it were flat and progressive it would’ve kicked Debby east. The very next trough is in a different location, but it effectively cuts off too…right in the danger zone.
  5. WxWatcher007
    Kev knew
  6. WxWatcher007
    Not much but I’d keep an eye on it lol
  7. WxWatcher007
    I don’t have anything scientific here, but I do think seeing how that Midwest trough trended does show that there’s potential this month that future troughs could do the same. Maybe not enough to drive it to Buffalo lol, but I think we get another EC threat (or two) this month.
  8. WxWatcher007
    I think a slight is close to a lock. I’m tracking severe more than rain around here lol.
  9. WxWatcher007
    D2
  10. WxWatcher007
    I think it’s way too early to look at track specifics. The steering pattern broadly? Sure. We just saw how quickly things could change with Debby…and Beryl…
  11. WxWatcher007
    Quite a solid look on IR
  12. WxWatcher007
    Not a bad look at all on IR
  13. WxWatcher007
    It’s too early to really get a good sense of where it’ll track (see Debby forecast ten days ago) but the genesis signal is very strong and with good reason—this looks like a highly favorable environment across guidance.
  14. WxWatcher007
    We’re going to quickly pivot from Debby to this new lemon. Forget the op runs—the environment ahead looks favorable, and the steering pattern as it stands preliminarily is for a close approach. Beware the cutoff trough—if we can get one now, the door is opened for repeats.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Seeing several tornado warnings tonight in NC. Convection has really blown up. Will be an interesting day as Debby keeps moving along.
  16. WxWatcher007
  17. WxWatcher007
    That actually sounds…pretty good (though I don’t smoke lol). We all have stories.
  18. WxWatcher007
    I wasn’t even thinking of looking out there
  19. WxWatcher007
    Long loop radar doesn’t show a secondary circulation. There’s deep convection SE of the center, but this shouldn’t influence the overall track of Debby. Matters for rainfall though.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Last hour radar indicated 2-3" and pushing 5-6" last three. I'm not sure how slow to update that site data is currently you posted. It's either incorrect, delayed, or radar is a temporary simulation experiment. I'll take one of the first two options. I'm using RadarScope but I see three hour estimates in that range and totals between 7-10” overall just west of the city.
  21. WxWatcher007
    That’s the kind of band that can drop 20” with enough time.
  22. WxWatcher007
    Grain of salt for sure lol. If we see some substantial severe down in the Mid-Atlantic it may foreshadow some activity here. Still pretty funny to me that we’re days out from something meaningful here. Tropical tracking isn’t for the impatient.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Euro
  24. WxWatcher007
    Paging @weatherwiz From a met in the MA subforum
  25. WxWatcher007
    Things will probably pick up in a big way across the MDR soon. It should be a hyperactive peak.
×
×
  • Create New...