Jump to content

WxWatcher007

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    33,608

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Despite the IR appearance, it does look like 98L is organizing more now. Again, not a lot of time, but the NHC has upped the development odds given the trends we're starting to see.
  2. WxWatcher007
    I thought that too originally but I think it might be tilt rather than missing the center. Either way, the fix shows (at least right now) a motion just south of due west. Those fixes will be really important for short term modeling and the islands.
  3. WxWatcher007
    I know I'm not the only one that wants this place to continue being what it has been (for the most part)--a place for analysis and sharing information & passion for tropical meteorology.
  4. WxWatcher007
    8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 14 Location: 16.9°N 51.9°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 999 mb Max sustained: 70 mph
  5. WxWatcher007
  6. WxWatcher007
    Recon making its descent. Should start getting meaningful data soon.
  7. WxWatcher007
    We have some light westerlies in that most recent batch of data from recon which is meaningful, but still, not terribly organized.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Me yesterday.
  9. WxWatcher007
    98L is still very disorganized per recon so far.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Recon just started so we're going to get a sense soon of what the structure of this is.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Still squarely a threat to Newfoundland.
  12. WxWatcher007
    Just want to continue to highlight that even if Erin isn't a direct threat to the US, it is potentially a threat to Atlantic Canada, specifically Newfoundland, with models showing misses, close approaches, and more direct impacts in various model runs.
  13. WxWatcher007
    No, there's just not enough time for that kind of organization to occur imo. This is probably making landfall tomorrow afternoon which would suggest ~45kt intensification in 24 hours. That would require exceptionally fast organization just to allow for the kind of pressure falls necessary to bring winds up to 64kt. A "lower end" TS would be more likely.
  14. WxWatcher007
    New invest in the Gulf, with time as a limiting factor.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Although it's convectively active, it doesn't look particularly organized and time is a huge limiting factor. It's a low shear environment and the BoC so we'll see if that helps organize this faster into a TC. We'll know more should recon fly today at 18z.
  16. WxWatcher007
    I’d go even lower, but I guess I’d just preach caution until recon has had a chance to sample Erin and the surrounding environment before feeling too confident in the exact details of the recurve.
  17. WxWatcher007
    Don’t worry the trough will be there whenever tropical reaches the SW Atlantic.
  18. WxWatcher007
    Nothing really new from the NHC. The real interest will come with the 00z suite and whether this westward adjustment due to a less aggressive Canadian trough and rebuilding Atlantic ridge continues.
  19. WxWatcher007
    Among the consensus models, it has been quite a trend
  20. WxWatcher007
    I did! .03”
  21. WxWatcher007
    As the NHC noted at 5pm, there is a lot of spread in the longer range. Note that even though these are relatively close to the coast, the overwhelming majority of members completely miss the east coast. The risk doesn't lie in if the current "forecast" holds, it lies in if there is a trend toward weakening the Canadian troughing and restrengthening the Atlantic ridge.
  22. WxWatcher007
    .01" at home
  23. WxWatcher007
    Still think there’s a very long way to go before thinking this is a bona fide US threat with a lot that needs to change but you can see the current changes looking at the last four EPS runs in the steering pattern. I don’t think today’s runs are enough to say there’s a trend. If 00z is similar, then maybe.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Long shot but yeah, still worth watching. The UL pattern over Canada is critical to how close this gets. Note how much less aggressive the trough is in SE Canada. That has a ripple effect across the steering pattern players. 00z 12z
  25. WxWatcher007
    Well, it's still an outlier. For a closer approach you absolutely need the big ULL in Canada to back off. I don't think that's impossible. The cutoff in the GL region is a whole different level of complexity however imo. This still looks like a very very low chance for us, with meaningful risk in NF. I guess it's still worth a casual eye lol. Yeah...I'm not sure how that'll play out over time.
×
×
  • Create New...