WxWatcher007

It is happy hour in London.

I feel like I need to find the wx station. I’ve been to the airport it’s tiny.

This will be impactful up and down the east coast. Although it may try to start with some hybrid/tropical characteristics, by the time it’s impacting us it’s a potent nor’easter. Impacts all the same with rain, wind, and possibly significant coastal flooding.

I’m still a little under my numbers for the peak season forecast, but I still think we get something out of the CAG by the 20th. GFS tries to spin something up at 12z. There is an EPS signal too that’s modest.

I tend to be a NHC defender on how they classify things, but the last couple of years have been rough for a few NS they’ve either designated or missed. The 2021 October one, which was later called Subtropical Storm Wanda, was pretty wild. Unnamed and hurricane force gusts on the Cape lol.

Was just going to post. I agree. By the time it’s impacting us it’s a potent nor’easter.

Low of 39.2 at WXW1, which blasted HFD's low of 44. Low of 28.6 at WXW2, which was warmer (as expected) than SLK's low of 23.

Kind of how I feel with the new location, though they’ve done well relative to normal lately. Maybe I need to wish for more of the same

Not as good this year for sure. Pictures still don’t do it justice though. This is the SLK/Lake Placid area.

Although we're in the tropical doldrums, in recent years October has delivered several impressive subtropical or hybrid coastal storms in the region that have brought significant impacts to the coast and/or inland. Although uncertainty remains on the track and intensity of a coastal low that is expected to form later this week, the signal for impacts in SNE has increased. Cyclogenesis begins to occur off the southeast coast late week/early weekend. Although there will be some tropical influence, nobody should be expecting some sort of purely tropical entity to develop. You can see why below. As the system gets pulled north, energy from the Great Lakes region attempts to dive down and phase. Whether it is subtropical by then (unlikely given how the NHC handled a possible subtropical system earlier this season) is irrelevant. This is a coastal storm that will become quite strong and will be "enhanced" by a gradient to the north of the center. There are still differences in track and intensity that will determine if this is just a run of the mill autumn coastal, or something a bit stronger. The Euro keeps the core of the winds and rain to our south with a further south track. Meanwhile, the GFS is more robust, and brings the core of the system closer to the region. Regardless of track, this will be a sprawling system, meaning that you don't actually need to be in the center to get the most impacts, unlike a purely tropical system (which is NOT happening). While the system may bring some much needed rain, I don't think that's the story currently. Persistent onshore flow and wind may be the biggest stories. The extent of coastal flooding will probably depend on the exact track of the system. Strongest winds are likely at the coast of course, but a stronger system with further north ticks could introduce some inland areas to windier conditions. With leaves on the trees that could cause some issues. As @CoastalWxsaid in the other thread, the best way to get wind inland would probably be to get this to peak near the Cape and then rip the low back west as it occludes. Not sure how viable an option that is though with so much likely to happen to our south with regard to the maturation of the low.

No matter the track, this is probably really impactful at the coast. Will leave it to you all to start a thread (or not).

.30” so far at WXW1

This one will be much more sprawling. There may be severe coastal impacts for a large area.

Really has to slow down to vertically align

Hybrid season ftw?

I know the feeling. Except the part about retirement

Never believed in the Euro or GFS verbatim for this. There's still a lot to sort out. It obviously won't be tropical, but I still think this could fiddle with subtropical depending on where the original low wants to meander.

Hello, Jerry! This one has major potential if it can avoid shear. If this were August or early September, this would probably be a Caribbean cruiser given its latitude. But we're approaching mid-October, and that means a trough will carry this one out to sea after a close call with the islands. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (5) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry With Jerry forming and forecasted to become a hurricane, that would put me in a good range for H and potentially have me spot on for MH.

Not dumb at all. Weathernerds is also a great site where you can see the Google AI stuff.

Going to be a close call for the islands. Shear is a big wildcard as the NHC notes, but this has major potential if it can avoid that. Another big genesis bust for the Euro.

I’ll always love each of the seasons for what they are, but the last decade of winter has been horrific.

Wife got a great job opportunity out of the blue, but since it’s so far away it’s not something you can commute to, especially in winter. I’m still doing my thing in CT, but will be up here from time to time. It’s a pretty wild example of never knowing where life will take you. My wife never wanted to be outside of a city/suburb, and absolutely hates snow.

It seemed like the Euro was the most bearish with earlier TC genesis, and that appears to be wrong. 95L is organizing at a steady pace, and probably will be a TD tomorrow at this rate. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

It's so nice. Dinner by the lake with my wife tonight. Being in the middle of nowhere (or thereabouts) is definitely a different vibe lol. I was trying to get a simple work desk and chair today and...I'm still looking. It also feels like everyone is in bed by 9 but when it gets this dark and quiet outside what else can you do?

March 2026? Yeah, always nice but still, rough year. We’re at peak here at WXW2.