WxWatcher007

Yeah it’s not earth shattering. 98 ACE as of yesterday in the Atlantic, or 110% of climo to date.

I think it means you can cancel winter extra early this year.

Was popping in to say I hope I can get a good LES chase this season and y’all are talking tropical! Originally it looked like we’d see some SE Canada ridging and a cutoff low south of New England that could force a close approach by Sam, but the guidance quickly shifted to bring the trough over NE. That does two things: first, it allows for a much cooler NW/northerly flow that’s persistent as the trough slowly meanders over or just east of the region and 2) keeps Sam out to sea or pulls it into Newfoundland.

As impressive as the rapid intensification was, the period of weakening has been fascinating as well. It looks like the ERC, which reorganizes a hurricane's inner core, provided the opening for relatively light shear to impart dry air into the more vulnerable core, causing significant disruption.

It has recovered a bit in the last few frames (not shown above), but it’s really fascinating to contrast how the inner core rapidly organized yesterday to what we’ve seen this evening.

All my picks suck

I’m thinking of heading up this season. Never been before but drove through Vermont/NH last year after the peak and it was quite nice.

I'm not looking at it closely right now, but yeah, probably. Too many opportunities for the central Atlantic ridge to be weakened as whatever develops drives west. That said, the first wave could get shredded a bit by the outflow of Sam and meander its way into the western Caribbean in the long range until it finds a more favorable environment. Again, hadn't looked that much but this is the time of year for that kind of thing.

Closing out CV season with twins? Looks like the season shifts to the western Caribbean/SW Atlantic (fitting climo) soon.

First VDM of the recon mission. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 23:36ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: SamStorm Number & Year: 18 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 22:37:19ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.43N 50.56WB. Center Fix Location: 614 statute miles (988 km) to the E (81°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 932mb (27.53 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 120° at 30kts (From the ESE at 35mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 134kts (154.2mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the W (270°) of center fix at 22:36:23ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 9° at 119kts (From the N at 136.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the W (270°) of center fix at 22:35:35ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 98kts (112.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (90°) of center fix at 22:39:02ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 174° at 120kts (From the S at 138.1mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the E (90°) of center fix at 22:39:06ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,065m (10,056ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 120kts (~ 138.1mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (90°) from the flight level center at 22:39:06Z

WE do...but will the NHC say it

I don't think the NHC will, not right now at least. That might be a postseason analysis question. That said, they still need to sample the other quadrants of the eyewall.

Ugh. We need funding to have recon on demand.

Recon finally beginning to descend into Sam. Should have some inner core data coming soonish.

5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 26Location: 14.2°N 50.5°WMoving: NW at 7 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 150 mph

Sam is definitely making its case for a five. High altitude recon is currently out there and low level recon shouldn’t be too far behind.

Meanwhile…Washington looks terrible too smh. I gotta stop picking them.

Really interesting discussion Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 It's been an interesting evening with regards to analyzing the various data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter research flight into Hurricane Sam. Dropsonde data in both the southeast and northwest quadrants indicate that small eyewall mesovortices and possibly even tornado-scale vortices were present based on the wind profiles showing sharply opposite-direction winds from what would normally be expected in those regions of the hurricane. Some dropsonde surface winds have been as high as 162 kt, which is more representative of a gust, while SFMR surface winds have been as high as 133 kt. However, the strongest 700-mb flight-level winds have been 138-139 kt in the northeastern quadrant, which equates to about 125-kt tangential surface winds. Three dropsondes released in the eye indicate that the pressure had remained steady at 943-944 mb during the duration of the aircraft reconnoiter. That pressure equates to about 125 kt based on various pressure-wind relationships. Based on that estimate and the 700-mb flight-level to surface-wind conversion, the advisory intensity is 125 kt, which is representative of the mean tangential winds and no localized wind perturbations. The initial motion is toward the west-northwest, or 295/07 kt. Not to sound like a broken record, but no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast and reasoning. Sam is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and northwestward over the next few days around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that is situated to the north and northeast of the small hurricane. On days 4 and 5, an upper-level trough/low is forecast to dig southward and amplify off the U.S. east coast and extend all the way to the Bahamas. This feature should act to lift Sam northward at a faster forward speed. The latest NHC model guidance based on 12Z and 18Z model runs has shifted noticeably to the east of the previous runs, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction as well. However, since the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft has been out there sampling the environment around Sam, it's best to remain conservative and not shift the track any farther to the east until the new 00Z model runs with that new aircraft data come in for the next advisory package at 0600Z. The new NHC track forecast lies about halfway between the previous advisory track on the left and the tightly packed consensus track models on the right. The radar images from the reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the eyewall was thin in many locations due to dry-air intrusions, and the latest SHIPS intensity output indicates that Sam will remain within a fairly dry mid-level environment. Also, the depth of the warm water beneath the hurricane isn't overly deep, which could result in cold upwelling owing to Sam's slow forward motion of only 5-7 kt during the next couple of days. Eyewall replacement cycles are also likely now due to the hurricane's small size and strong intensity. Thus, fluctuations in intensity seem likely for the next couple of days even though the vertical wind shear is expected to remain quite low at only 5-10 kt. On days 3-5, however, the shear is forecast to increase to 15-20 kt from the southwest, which is expected to induce a slow weakening trend. However, it is likely that Sam will remain a major hurricane through 120 h, even on days 3-5 due to the cyclone moving over warmer and deeper water during that 3-day period. The new official intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and remains above the consensus model and is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 13.5N 49.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 14.0N 49.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 14.7N 51.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 15.4N 52.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 16.3N 53.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 17.1N 54.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.0N 55.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 20.1N 58.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 23.7N 61.4W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Both recon flights have ended, so now we wait to see what the NHC does at 11.

It's awesome, and there are multiple dropsondes doing it. This has been a really cool recon flight to watch.

This is a full on five bun dropsonde.