WxWatcher007

943mb and 140mph at 5pm with recon en route. Forget the track. This is classic MDR eye candy.

Absolutely spectacular. Glad recon is heading out there.

This is about as beautiful an inner core presentation as you'll ever see. Sammy doing work.

What was once 98L was able to take advantage of the favorable environment, and has now become Major Hurricane Sam. Subtropical Storm Teresa also formed. As I mentioned before, my named storm forecast has completely decoupled from the hurricane and MH forecast as a lot of slop has formed. Now I am way ahead of where I need to be on named storms, behind on hurricanes, and exactly where I need to be on majors. Frustrating, but overall the forecast still looks...ok... Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3)

Sam becomes the fourth major hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.

New version is better so far, but even so the GFS might crush the euro (again) here.

I’m strongly inclined to say no direct US impacts as well, but given that the modeled cutoff is shifting in some cases hundreds of miles between runs I think it’s most prudent to wait for recon to sample the steering environment.

Sat analysis brings this over 100kts with ADT up to 115kts. Overall presentation via satellite imagery and microwave support an upgrade. Sam should easily be a major at 11am if the NHC doesn’t do a special advisory sooner.

Sammy is absolutely going to town right now. Just beautiful clear out of the eye as towers go up around the eye. Need to watch for an ERC per the earlier microwave images.

Gets absorbed in a few days

Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 The disturbance just north of Bermuda interacting with a mid- to upper-level low has developed a prominent band of deep convection within its eastern semicircle as well as a well-defined surface center. Additionally, the system is not displaying any significant baroclinicity (i.e., frontal boundaries), so it is not an extratropical cyclone. All of which indicates that the system has evolved into a subtropical cyclone. ASCAT-C scatterometer data from 1440Z suggested peak winds were around 40 kt, which is the basis for calling the system Subtropical Storm Teresa. The system is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt is it rounds the northern part of the mid- to upper-level low. By Saturday, Teresa should turn northward and then northeastward, as it begins to be caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast is based upon the TVCN track consensus technique. Teresa will not be long-lived. A developing extratropical system forming off of New England should absorb Teresa between 36 and 48 hours. Until then, the subtropical storm has a small window to intensify slightly while traversing lukewarm water and encountering moderate vertical shear. If deep convection develops near the system's center, then Teresa could evolve into a tropical storm. However, it is more likely that Teresa will remain a subtropical storm until dissipation in around two days. It is worth noting that Teresa will likely be the 9th so-called "shortie" of the 2021 hurricane season -- systems that are short- lived and relatively weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 34.5N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

I hear you. I have the benefit of being able to chase US tropical, so for a good enough event I can personally see the tracking payoff. I would have been in Louisiana for Ida if I didn’t have a family commitment I couldn’t move. I enjoy whatever falls in winter, but the older I get the more big dog or bust I become. I can’t muster the energy to track minor winter stuff closely anymore, but I get it though—I track Atlantic swirls before they’re even invests lol.

NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Teresa, located to the north of Bermuda, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Retransmitted NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued for the system located to the north-northeast of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Updated: Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that a well-defined center has formed with a surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda interacting with an upper-level trough. In addition, the low is producing gale-force winds on the north side of its circulation. Additional development into a subtropical storm is now expected, and advisories will likely be initiated this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the north-northwest. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Mean would still keep it away from the US, but the cutoff has trended SW a bit. This thing is basically crawling before it reaches the Antilles.

I loathe winter tracking so this is my regular season. Agree about the ensembles but they lead the way to the “right” solution more often than not.

Unless the ensembles make a notable shift, these op runs are just pretty to look at and wonder what could be here.

I still caution that at this range all the operational stuff is still weenie fodder, but heh, it's something to talk about for a few hours. Show me the ensembles because the GEFS are not budging.

The ridge and cutoff retrograde west...how it gets there is pretty interesting too. At the risk of starting another 12 hour debate on what "close" is LOL I'll just stop there

NHC says in their 2pm that they may start advisories on 99L later this afternoon. Finally a little homebrew Also, regardless of how this 12z run ends, this is a pretty interesting Euro run. Still weenie fodder at this range though.

Likely to become our next named storm as it has increased in organization. Perhaps a system for Maritime Canada? Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda is gradually becoming better defined as it interacts with an upper-level trough. This system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph north of the low center and additional development into a subtropical or tropical storm appears likely. Advisories could be initiated as soon as this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the north-northwest over the next day or so. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Yes we can

That’s a heck of a business idea. I’ve already had the guys in marketing do a mock up. THE SWEEPER Pushing tropical cyclones and weenies into the abyss since 1492.

I’m offended you’re not talking about the imminent grid collapse that Sammy will bring to the northeast.