WxWatcher007

An all-time event for the region. Just extraordinary.

Underperforming areas of interest across the Atlantic. 95L has a LLC but no organization. PTC Two has some organization but no LLC. Early season slop for all

Looks like we will have dual recon missions this afternoon. Recon en route to Invest 95L. There is much more convection so far today and it looks like the environment is moistening, but it's unclear if there's enough organization with shear still present.

Recon en route to investigate PTC 2. It looks like it has organized overnight, but may just be short of having a closed LLC. We'll see what recon finds.

Recon tentatively scheduled to investigate 95L tomorrow.

Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Yeah low ceiling stuff here.

Tropical Overview--6/28/22 It has been a quiet June, but as we turn the page from June to July, an unusually favorable environment has allowed for multiple areas of interest to pop up. Let's start with the Atlantic before turning closer to home. To be clear--this is still a time of year that is generally hostile to tropical genesis, especially out in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic and Caribbean. In fact, the eastern Caribbean is notoriously called "the graveyard" this time of year because of hostile wind shear. This time however, there are a couple of factors that have opened the Atlantic, briefly, for business. First and foremost, we see a dramatic drop in wind shear that has allowed for PTC Two and the second Atlantic area of interest to have a shot at development. In addition to this, we saw the passage of a CCKW, which enhanced convection across the basin and helped PTC Two as it exited the ITCZ. This kind of shear in the MDR and especially eastern Caribbean is unheard of for this time of year. As you can see, the high shear is displaced to the north, which has implications on the two Atlantic areas of interest. A sprawling ridge over the Atlantic will shunt PTC Two to the west and put it on a rare collision course with South America before making landfall in Central America. In fact, the forecast track is suppressed so far south it seems possible that this system could cross over relatively intact into the Pacific. Because PTC Two stays south, even with land interaction it is unlikely to encounter the kind of shear that would inhibit it from intensifying to near hurricane strength before landfall in Nicaragua. On the other hand, the wave behind PTC Two is likely to find a weakness that will propel it further northwest, into the shear buzzsaw zone. Although a wave axis may stay intact, the models forecast strong shear that is likely to keep the second wave from being a significant player. Still worth watching, but only with a casual eye. Not much analysis needed on that one at this time. As you can see from the wave propagation plot above, we're likely to go to a suppressed phase shortly, that will likely close the window for MDR development until we start ramping up toward the climatological peak of the season and CV season. Given the impressive expanse of the warmth thus far (though MDR SSTs remain meh) and ongoing La Nina conditions, I expect the basin to really go into high gear once we get to August, higher than what climo would suggest. In fact, looking at the TCHP chart compared to other years at this time, the warmth we see in the Gulf, Caribbean, and SW Atlantic is significant. Even if waves aren't ready for prime time in the MDR, conditions look generally favorable closer to the coast. But I'm getting ahead of myself... Closer to home, we have Invest 95L, which was designated this morning near the Texas coast. The guidance has forecasted some weak development, and given current SSTs and relatively low shear (though still there) development is possible. There is an apparent low level center that has developed, and some shallow convection. You can see a clear LLC, but it's unclear how durable that will be. If it is durable, it increases the odds of tropical cyclone genesis. However, there's shear that evident on this loop, as well as some dry air that may inhibit development. There's not much analysis to do here: this invest needs time, which is in short supply, but if we start seeing convection and pressure drops over the apparent center, the odds of development go up. Heavy rain is the biggest threat here. Overall, we see a few areas of interest as we close out June, which is unusual. This should be short lived, especially in the MDR region, as the basin continues to slowly come to a boil.

Stand by for a tropical update.

Poor Wiz. I know how he feels. We like what we like even if it doesn’t show up in our backyard lol. We don’t even do snow all that well around here these days. All we have left is “drought” and dew talk.

This morning a new invest was designated off the coast of Texas. Although it has 30% development odds currently, the guidance in recent days has picked up on some development that could allow this to become a tropical cyclone. 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. While there is some shear evident in the area, and the system doesn't have time to rapidly develop due to proximity to land, this morning there are hints that a low level center has developed, and we do see some shallow convection attempting to fire around the center. We will need to watch and see if this LLC is durable, and if so, whether shear will be enough to inhibit tropical genesis. I'd put the odds a little higher than the current 30%, with odds increasing as long as that LLC continues to see convection firing near the center. Pressure drops don't look too impressive at the moment. Regardless of whether a TC comes out of this, it is likely to be a heavy rain event for parts of the Texas coast, with the Euro particularly aggressive with rainfall over the next 3-4 days.

Yeah I was thinking of you today with the 12z Euro crossover run lol. It looks like this’ll be a relatively quick mover with that big ridge over the top.

That’s awesome! You can see how PTC 2 traverses lower shear while the trailing wave runs right at the shear. Still, the gfs continues to be quite aggressive in developing something out of that.

NHC expects this to become the first hurricane of the season. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just investigated the tropical wave to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and found that the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. However the plane did find an area of tropical-storm-force winds over the northern portion of the system. The disturbance is producing some cells of strong convection, but overall the system is not very well organized. Since there is a good chance that the disturbance will become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The environment looks fairly favorable for development, but the numerical guidance is generally not that bullish on strengthening for the next couple of days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the correct consensus model, HCCA. Although the center is not well defined, my best estimate of the initial motion is about 285/16 kt. A strong 500 mb subtropical ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the system through the forecast period. This steering scenario should cause a west-northwestward to westward track for the next several days. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night and into Wednesday. 2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands beginning late Tuesday and into Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 8.6N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/0600Z 9.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 28/1800Z 10.1N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 29/0600Z 10.8N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 11.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 11.8N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 12.1N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 12.2N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 12.3N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Could have been a contender, but there’s some significant shear evident on that loop (the cloud tops getting blown away).

PTC Two coming at 5pm.

PTC Two coming at 5pm.

100% It’s cheaper, it’s easier, and often a better experience. I can swap between games and toss ones that are clunkers.

We have wind (trade aided) but now LLC yet.

I really want to find time to do a tropical update. Ugh. Recon has arrived at the invest. This one is more organized now that it’s moving past 50W, but we’ll see if it’s enough to to get designated. It’s going to pass very low, almost scraping South America, which is pretty uncommon, en route to Central America. Meanwhile the gfs continues to show development of the wave after 94L. I’m fact the 12z run takes it into Florida next week as a weak TS. The environment is much more hostile after 94L so grain of salt there. Ensembles have been showing a signal though, hence the lemon issued today.

Recon has arrived at the invest. The key thing is whether it has a closed LLC.

Months and months of monotony.

Happy birthday!

Recon is scheduled to investigate this afternoon.

Yeah, it looks like this one stays south. Interestingly, it looks like the ensembles are hinting at the following wave having a shot at development.