WxWatcher007

Pensacola reported a 51 mph wind gust.

It’s obviously lopsided, but Claudette looks decent this morning. We’ll see a pretty interesting evolution over the next few days, and Claudette will probably look better over land than it ever did in the Gulf before trying to redevelop into a tropical cyclone off the east coast. Should be an active couple days. Nice couplet west of Pensacola…

I don’t think the CAG will stick around, but it does look like there may be another Caribbean or Gulf window as another CCKW potentially passes through in early July.

Much respect to the Euro, as it caught onto the idea of a robust inland system while the other guidance played catch up, or in the case of the GFS, went to the sideline and threw up on itself What you’ll see the next few days is Claudette look better over land than it ever did in the Gulf as it organizes from a jet injection, before possible redevelopment into a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic. Fascinating evolution, sucks it’s happening too far south for anything interesting here. Oh well.

As much as I love tropical, that’s not worth a chase.

Amen. Enjoy the time you have.

Don’t see anything that stands out to me on quick glance.

21 is a GREAT age. You bounce back from physical punishment like nothing. You begin the slow decline toward oblivion in your 30s

30

Up to 45mph at 2pm.

Eh, earlier in the week it looked better for us. Would need a northward shift to bring something more meaningful to SE NE.

Much better convection developing today as it approaches landfall—like the models suggested. Still lopsided, but better organized per recon.

Looks like we’re seeing a southward shift of the low once it’s inland. Could end up with nothing here.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little better organized today. This system is expected to move generally northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM CDT (2100 UTC). An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains will also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Pasch

We’re still six days out, but the idea of a decent post tropical low up in the region is gaining traction with me. EPS remains bullish (note it almost certainly wouldn’t be tropical at this latitude, but the ensembles are picking up on a relatively “strong” low possible)

This doesn’t look like a major tropical system, and we’ve been waiting basically two weeks for development, I think banter is fine lol.

Fair enough. Euro is the furthest left. GEFS keeps things away for the most part. I’m not ready to bite, but it’s something to watch.

EPS has been in lockstep. I’m a little more intrigued today.

That microwave image

I’d love to do that someday

As the resident tropical guy—this one is anything but fake. This system had a well defined center, a developing Central Dense Overcast, and while it was developing along a diffuse front, it was being powered by the Gulf Stream, making it warm core. No naked swirl here. It’s a lot easier observing these storms now due to the phenomenal tools we have, but we should also keep in mind that 1) this fits climo and 2) warmer seas create wider windows for short lived storms to develop.

Out to sea. Good looking storm though.

Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021 Deep convection has increased in a cluster to the northeast of the estimated center. Scatterometer measurements showed a couple of 40-41 kt vectors over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. On this basis, the estimated intensity is increased to 40 kt, which makes this the second tropical storm of the season, albeit a rather high-latitude one. The system is in an environment of fairly strong southwesterly shear, but the diffluent upper-level flow has apparently contributed to some strengthening in a seemingly hostile environment. Some additional short-term strengthening could occur but by 36 hours, the cyclone should merge with a baroclinic zone while approaching Newfoundland and become extratropical. This transition is also shown by the FSU cyclone phase analyses of the GFS model fields. Bill is moving fairly swiftly northeastward, or 055/20 kt. The track forecast appears to be straightforward. The flow ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough near the United States east coast should accelerate the system northeastward for the next day or two, and until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and not far from the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 36.7N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 38.9N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 42.6N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 46.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

I knew you were joking Let’s bring this one home (seriously though, the EPS has wanted to bring remnants north)

Like I said, 5 bun run