WxWatcher007

Much like winter, even though it’s fantasy range it’s good to see something pop up.

Let’s just try to get some raindrops first brother

Like @NorthHillsWxstated, it’s going to take a little more time in the MDR, but we’re starting to see signals on the ensembles that aren’t the classic “perpetually ten days away” type pattern. SAL is on the decline in the basin (though still rough to be sure) and we’re entering the peak with a CCKW/MJO tailwind. I’m still wary of another false start signal, but if the basin can’t start popping some appetizers in the next ten days and at least one entree by the end of the month, that’d be bad for those like me that expect a solidly above average NS and ACE season.

Models trying to pick up on a Bay of Campeche disturbance trying to develop in a few days. Generally, that tends to be a favorable environment with the concave nature of the bay, so that alone makes it something to keep a casual eye on.

CT weenies would burn the state to the ground. Easy to do with so much kindling around.

Yeah that still doesn’t work for most of CT. We toss. Euro leading the way off the cliff for parched and desperate weenies?

Has it been wet down there? Bone dry here. My new front lawn is dead lol

The sunsets over my dead front lawn have been nice.

This has been a horrifically boring summer, but it is what it is.

Me too. How is Boston doing heat better than RIC??? That’s going to do me in.

Honesty, despite the signal for things to pick up, I’m in show me mode. There have been enough false starts this season.

98L would have easily become tropical with just 12 hours more over water, but alas, it’s inland and looking pretty good.

Low of 52.4 here. First night at the new house. Coolest low since June.

With this morning’s convective burst and organization, no doubt it would have developed with more time. Waited too long to get its act together, a hallmark of the 2022 season thus far.

GFS does try to get this to at least a TD before land, but the low needs some more convective organization.

Now would be a great time for a classic euro double down run. A tight 980mb low slingshotting into GON.

Hopefully we can get a little more organization for rainfall purposes.

We knowingly endorse this (likely) fraudulent run of the GFS.

No long post because I'm moving lol but it's interesting how basically the two areas with lowest odds of development last Sunday are now the only game in town after 97L got smothered by tropical Atlantic stability. Still think whatever pops along the East Coast in a few days is non-tropical. Still low odds of development in the Gulf but at least there's a low. I know it looks rough out there on the guidance but the basin is gradually getting better. Not sure when we're going to start seeing a response on the guidance, especially with a favorable CCKW and MJO coming.

Oh how we pray for the 06z GFS. The monotony has been awful.

Nothing really to write home about yet. Hope you’re able to get some meaningful rain.

I was watching it last week Doesn't look tropical verbatim on the guidance. The low would need to develop further south IMO. We actually need the rain up here so I’d take a 06z GFS—tropical or not—in a heartbeat.

Summer at its finest.