WxWatcher007

Looks like there could be some nasty conditions along the shoreline on Sunday/Monday if the GFS is right. I'm interested in the post landfall motion and whether this turns more progressive if that trough is a little stronger.

I mean, it intensified 30kts in 18 hours. That's RI. It's all about the structure and environment. Yesterday morning it built the structure to intensify at a rapid pace, and late yesterday/early this morning it capitalized on the environment. Now it needs to close the eye and keep it closed consistently to have the next level of rapid intensification. I don't really see any major red flags that this will underperform in reaching major status. If 12 hours from now it still can't close off an eyewall, then there's an issue IMO.

True, but I definitely do not chase water. That 12z GFS run would be close to catastrophic for Tampa and the surrounding area.

Originally it had the UKMET ensembles, but they ran so late it kind of made the super ensemble obsolete as it was significantly delayed.

Maybe. Blending is the way to go usually, and I think that holds true here so far. There is a lot of medium range spread in track, which translates into intensity and obviously impacts. This one seems to be a mess for emergency managers along the coast that need to start getting people ready now. This is where I think Tomer's super ensemble is especially helpful, and at five days 00z you still have significant spread. I think we're still in the stage where we're trying to figure out the real envelope of possibilities. A Tampa LF vs Panama City LF is a big spread. What happens inland is a big spread too and will have impacts on GA/SC. I don't have to make a forecast so it's easy for me to say, but I'm more in watch/collect data mode because I'm not sure any model has this evolution under control yet.

Haha I was thinking that too. Best case for me personally would be an east shift over the peninsula and then take my chances with a second landfall in the SE. Ain't likely though. I don't think this is it for the season and I just had a great chase, so not too much sleep lost if this one doesn't work out.

With all the grief it gets, the GFS has done fairly well given the track chaos thus far.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 13:14ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: IanStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 15Observation Number: 34 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 12:44:32ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.79N 82.48WB. Center Fix Location: 80 statute miles (129 km) to the WSW (245°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 60° at 8kts (From the ENE at 9mph)F. Eye Character (Undecoded): OPEN NW NEG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 53kts (61.0mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the WSW (238°) of center fix at 12:38:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 332° at 56kts (From the NNW at 64.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SW/WSW (236°) of center fix at 12:37:55ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 60kts (69.0mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix at 12:50:24ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 137° at 72kts (From the SE at 82.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix at 12:51:39ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,450m (8,038ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,457m (8,061ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the E (93°) from the flight level center at 11:20:34Z

Wish it would slow down more so I could get there

Models having a lot of trouble narrowing the goalposts. Must be a mess for emergency managers.

First light visible is going to be a sight. Deep convection now wrapping 3/4 around the eye. Nice outflow continuing to develop. Those extraordinarily high RI probs look to verify today.

Just getting back home and finally getting a good look at Ian. IR doesn't always tell the story, but tonight we see numerous meaningful clues that after developing a structure earlier in the day, Ian is finally taking advantage of an increasingly favorable environment. From just a few hours ago, it was evident that Ian was starting to pick up the pace of organization with the development of spiral bands and hints of an inner core. With IR, we see multiple vortical towers trying to wrap around that core. The very intense convection itself probably has this near hurricane force if not already there. Finally, I like taking a look at the Weathernerds WV to make sense of whats happening under the cloud tops. Much like the IR, you see how in recent hours the towers have gone up and tried wrapping around a developing core. I haven't had a chance to dive deep into long term track and impacts, but in the last few hours Ian has certainly put "meat on the bones" so to speak. This leads to the eye-like feature (we don't quite know until confirmed by recon) that @MattPetrulli posted earlier. Nothing earth shattering, but I expect recon to find Ian a hurricane tonight. Once there is a fully developed inner core, this one should be able to take off intensity wise. Dry air may have hindered the convective activity earlier, but this is a delayed but not denied situation IMO.

A clip of the damage survey. Will probably upload the longer one tomorrow. New personal records for low pressure (941.9mb) and wind measured (65.3mph). Great chase. I should note the very last photo is just over the border in New Brunswick. Everything else is the Arisaig area and coastline west.

A clip of the damage survey. Will probably upload the longer one tomorrow. New personal records for low pressure (941.9mb) and wind measured (65.3mph) Great chase. Time to track Ian.

A clip of the damage survey. Will probably upload the longer one tomorrow. Time to track Ian.

If Ian could just slow down a little more I think I could get there. It’ll be close. Ugh. What a chase in NS. Damage all the way back to New Brunswick.

Trees down all the way into New Brunswick. What an event.

Trees down all the way into New Brunswick.

Significant wind damage near and west of Arisaig. Surveying now.

Passing through the northern shoreline of NS and there is substantial damage. Sparsely populated, low signal.

Passing through ground zero for wind and there is substantial damage.

Causeway held up fine. On my way to the northern shore of NS to survey the area.

I thought I saw top 5

Yeah this was a big hit. We’ll see if folks consider it a benchmark storm. Hope you get power back soon.