WxWatcher007

It seemed like the Euro was the most bearish with earlier TC genesis, and that appears to be wrong. 95L is organizing at a steady pace, and probably will be a TD tomorrow at this rate. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

It's so nice. Dinner by the lake with my wife tonight. Being in the middle of nowhere (or thereabouts) is definitely a different vibe lol. I was trying to get a simple work desk and chair today and...I'm still looking. It also feels like everyone is in bed by 9 but when it gets this dark and quiet outside what else can you do?

March 2026? Yeah, always nice but still, rough year. We’re at peak here at WXW2.

Yeah I think we’ll kind of see the signal ebb and flow the next few days. It’s still pretty far out.

I still think this has a subtropical chance but totally agree that there could be severe coastal impacts regardless of designation.

I think that might be more due to 95L creating an escape hatch a la Humberto. The low isn’t exceptionally strong and may be too amplified, (read Tip’s comments in the tropical thread) but the sprawling nature of it and pressure gradient will probably bring some nasty coastal impacts depending on track.

@weatherwiz

Yeah, I’ve been tracking quietly for a few days now for the hybrid aspect.

That signal has been there for a while too, it’s only become more pronounced across guidance this past weekend. Maybe a little hybrid/subtropical with some energy trying to eject out of the Gulf. Track/intensity TBD. Of course, I’m up at WXW2 for the next week if it does come

2013? lol In all seriousness though, might be primed for a hybrid in the coming week to ten days.

Signal for some sort of hybrid or subtropical system off the coast near mid month.

That’s by far the worst spot too given the OHC and reduction in shear. There’s too much shear for the lemon areas in the Gulf right now, but the tropical Atlantic wave is likely to develop given how convectively active it continues to be and the CAG could very well produce 1-2 TCs (more likely 1 imo).

That’s fascinating stuff

Beautiful day

I’m cool with that. Op would just need to change the title.

Thinking the tropical Atlantic wave could be thread worthy tomorrow. Signal for it continues to be robust.

Anyone know how to contact @Kevin W? His PMs are full.

Interesting. It was relatively cool up here with BDL only +.9. Needed AN the last 8 days of the month just to get there.

Low of 41.1 here in EH

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible.

I recognize that this is not a real contribution, but I would sign for this.

Just adding to this. I think our window for something purely tropical is closed. With each passing day in October climo makes it so. But given the troughing we’ve seen and the possibility for a CAG ejecting something or stalled front induced coastal low off the SE coast later in the month some sort of hybrid wouldn’t be a pipe dream. We’ve actually done very well in recent years getting at least one October coastal with a little tropical influence.

Wow that cold?

Hybrid

Took a minute to pull together, but here's my latest analysis. We're far from done.