WxWatcher007

Maybe not?

It’s coming.

So much for a dry day lol

I do think the designations of a reg FFW and then the emergency alerts going off when you get to considerable or catastrophic is an excellent change. The FFEs as well. People do heed those.

I agree that happens, but then the time you have no watch and all hell breaks loose people wonder why forecasters dropped the ball…or in the most dramatic and tragic of consequences people die. Idk if there’s a particularly great way to do this. I think we also suffer from the bias that we’re weenies here. We track and follow this stuff. For some person that’s completely clueless about wx, a watch may actually be helpful because otherwise they would’ve had no idea if not for the local news mentioning it on their way out of the door or popping up on their dumb (sorry, editorializing lol) weather app.

Up to 30%, and the ensembles are slightly more bullish today.

Today was beautiful. Sitting on the patio during sunset was awesome.

Really hadn’t thought about that. Runaway warmth…

Yeah—I’m really interested to see if the basin takes advantage of what looks like a more favorable sub-seasonal window in late July-early August. I do think that where activity happens could be a good predictor of tropical Atlantic activity during the peak. Despite all the back and forth on here, I don’t think anyone disagrees with an active outlook in the western Atlantic.

Quite warm along the coast in recent years.

Why am I supposed to care what people say on another weather board? If you want to argue over their forecast, do it there with them. I haven't seen anybody here seriously argue that 2013 is walking through the door. There's ample evidence that it is not. But the 2004 and 2024 comparisons don't seem apples to apples, and I definitely don't expect something on the order of near 200 ACE when 2024 barely crossed the hyperactive threshold. But if you want to use 2024 as an example, in addition to the historic backloaded season that occurred and historic early season long track category 5, there was also an unprecedented period of virtually no activity right through the late August and mid-September peak. It's indisputable that there are mixed signals. That's not cope lol, it's fact. Despite the SST configuration which lends itself toward more stability in the tropical Atlantic, we have very low SAL as Lowry notes in his recent post. Mixed signal. Though I do think that the changes we're seeing in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself toward less stability if it continues. But I need to see what early to mid August looks like in the MDR. If there's an iron lid, especially toward mid-August, that will not be a good sign IMO. If however, stability isn't an issue in August, that would strongly lend itself toward an active MDR in September. This is the climatological peak of SAL, so even though it's near record lows it's still there for now. Anyone arguing that we're running toward a BN season based on the observed conditions thus far has forgotten that climatology is the definition of quiet through this part of the season. We're still 3/0/0. This look closes off much of the MDR, but look at the homebrew region off the U.S. coast. Unlike past years where the entire basin was being suffocated, the western Atlantic doesn't look abnormally dusty. Mixed signal. Yes, the tropical Atlantic and MDR are warming up, and doing so above the climatological average. That's a big deal in a neutral ENSO state. In our active Atlantic period I think it yells above average more than it did a month ago for sure. That puts me at least right back to where I've always been--lean AN. But these temperatures are nowhere close to 2023 or 2024 and while these configurations may suggest that we see more named storms they definitely aren't the arbiter of what the basin can do with major hurricanes. Remember, it's easy to get a NS, harder to get a H, and very hard to get a MH. For a MH you need enough runway with +SSTa, -wind shear, and a deep reserve of warmth. Whereas 2024 and prior seasons had that in spades, the biggest difference between 2025 and those years is OHC. It's not even close. This was June 2024 Now look at today To be clear, this is closer to normal. Yeah, there's a lot less heat, but we still can and will get MH out of these. But the reserve of heat is not on the level of other years. 2017 2020 2023 2024 2025 So yeah, the signals are mixed. But the current mix of observations and forecasts still suggest that this is an AN season. I don't think hyperactive is truly on the table, but check back August 15.

Potential was there. Looks like your area maximized it.

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/ You can find the specific product under FLASH on the left side of the page. Can go back in time and everything. It’s awesome.

Not bad

Congrats easterners

More robust from 12z. Nothing particularly exotic.

I’d favor eastern areas honestly, but this is probably a nowcast as the axis of heaviest precip has bounced around some today.

I want to see what the HREF does tonight

Talked about it earlier. Little low looks like it tries to ride the boundary and it’s just a deluge. Last few runs of the HRRR have been frisky too.

Areas south and east of me getting poured on right now. The VIL near Rocky Hill is legit.

Mesolow soaking on the NAM @CoastalWx? Seems like there’s legit FF potential tomorrow. Maybe more so than yesterday.