WxWatcher007
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Everything posted by WxWatcher007
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I do too, but we’ve all been porked enough the better part of a decade to be cautious until we’re actually measuring
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Even though I’m bullish, I totally agree with having some apprehension given how sensitive the setup is. It’s big boom or big bust imo. I think public facing communication should remain conservative as a result, at least for now. Although I think it’s less likely now that we’re 24h closer, there’s certainly the risk that this trend broadly backslides, which is an especially pronounced risk here because of the sensitivity to the ridge and actual phase.
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Would really like to see consensus..
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The next frame for those unnecessarily panicked There’s still a long way to go. Far from locked, but better than we were starting the day.
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Look at these changes. This is what you want to see. 00z 06z 12z 18z
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Definitely want to see something similar on the 18z EPS. Note how little is held back here Compared to the 12z EPS (which was a modest improvement over 00z)
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A couple runs notwithstanding, I have loved this look overall. This can absolutely be a megalopolis/region wide KU. The whole trend for multiple cycles has been positive, surface depictions be damned.
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You just need to see that the NS phase is happening. The exact surface depiction is irrelevant. I’d rather keep seeing nuclear detonations near the coast vs 200 miles off Virginia Beach.
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Radar still looks pretty solid in southern CT.
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Yeah it still needs work
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@CoastalWx in the images above you want to see a further north and more buckled field, right?
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The mean looks much improved to me but I can’t see the members yet. 12z yesterday 00z last night 12z today
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Flurries here in East Hartford. At least I got a T out of the DC storm lol
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Yep. Won’t get there but I suppose it’s something. Let’s see what the ensembles do.
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It makes sense. At this point I think we want to see consistent improvement across guidance. Especially the ensembles and gfs/euro.
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00z 06z 12z
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Very good move on the GEFS. 00z 06z 12z
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Agree, though I still look at ops as another ensemble member at this point.
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This. A thousand times this. I still don’t care that much for the details. I just need to see fusion happen to know we’re in business. By 120 you know whether it’s game on or not looking at 500mb.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
WxWatcher007 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Seriously, get the energy to fuse at the right time and it’s a nuclear detonation right off the coast. Everyone cashes in. -
Fusion happens just in time for a thermonuclear detonation right off the coast. It’s precarious, but beautiful.
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Same on weathermodels
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I’ll be watching too
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Given what we’ve been through the last several years, there’s a part of me that feels the same. But it’s the kind of thing where imo if we can’t produce at least something significant in this setup, we just don’t have it (again) this season.
