WxWatcher007

Yeah it’s time to break out the discussion with the trends continuing. Threads on both coming now.

The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current central Atlantic cherry. There has been a strong cross guidance signal for days that a central Atlantic wave will develop. The models have actually been quite robust with this wave once it develops, in similar fashion to the rapidly intensifying Gabrielle. The AI ensembles, which have done a particularly good job sniffing the environment out, are particularly strong. Now, while the majority of guidance turns this out to sea without threatening any land masses, the amplitude and timing of a trough in the coming week will determine the eventual evolution, along with where this develops. I expect this to develop first if both waves develop.

It may be starting to take off with deep convection now wrapping fully around the center. It has a narrow window before environmental conditions become more hostile but the once anemic Gabby may put on a show before the curtain falls.

It’s a spectacular system

Model noise most likely. Most ensembles have nothing there with the focus on the SW Atlantic over the next week to ten days.

Gabby is now a hurricane after undergoing RI, and is forecast to become a major. Huge for my forecast. The models are also bullish on the central Atlantic wave developing, and possibly the leading wave. We’ll see if that trend continues but it’s a good look so far for my forecast…

There’s no need for a thread quite yet imo. It does look like conditions are becoming more favorable in the western Atlantic. It’ll be interesting to see if the trend toward the leading wave and central Atlantic area continues to move toward development.

Now forecast to briefly become a major. While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h, which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period.

Definitely a grain of salt but anything in that region would be worth watching with uncertainty about the depth and orientation of next week’s trough. This is pretty similar to what I thought in my peak season outlook with activity concentrated in the SW Atlantic. The late month CAG signal seems muted for now.

NHC has now designated that lead wave as a lemon. The GFS and AI ensembles have been more bullish on development odds while the Euro has basically nothing until the 12z run.

That area is now a lemon. The GFS goes wild with it but the Euro is far more lukewarm.

Gabby on its way to becoming our next hurricane

Desperate times…

50.7° At WxW1 and a balmy 38.8° here at WxW2. The color is moving quickly in the Adirondacks. It’ll be interesting to learn the SLK climo lol. Maybe @powderfreak and I will become upslope buddies?

I’ll take the over on no development after Gabby lol. You could see the tropical Atlantic being a dead zone again from a mile away—the real question is what happens when climo shifts to the Caribbean and homebrew regions. Those areas have been warmer with more instability and less shear all season. If their peak season is a bust, then we’ll be in bust territory.

Yeah it’s going to take a little time but this might very well take off once it has sufficiently organized. Could be some open ocean eye candy.

It is, but the convective trend has reversed with shear and dry air decreasing. This is why the models are once again getting bullish on organization and intensification this weekend.

Signs of life now.

Congrats central CT

I would’ve named yesterday before this one and that Mid-Atlantic low wasn’t even tropical lol. I guess they had to go with continuity once they declared it a depression.

I expected a long wait, and here we are. Expected to become a hurricane. Outside shot at MH. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (2) Hurricanes: 6 (0) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Fernand, Gabrielle

Yeah. Not sure how much time I’ll be spending up there long term, but so far it’s been a few days a month. Incredibly beautiful up there. It’s a whole different world with the small town vibe and much colder climo. I definitely don’t want snow late April though lol.

The whole hemisphere…that’s really where it gets crazy.

It def had some subtropical characteristics near “landfall” but I think it fell short. Either way, the NHC wasn’t going to designate that after hesitating on a couple bona fide TCs already this year.

Due to some family and professional changes, SLK is going to be WXW 2 for me for the foreseeable future. It’s different up there I’ll tell you that…