WxWatcher007

This one is really interesting. It looks to have a more favorable environment in the Caribbean, and there seems to be two camps on the ensembles with one camp turning it northeast pretty soon and the second getting this further west. Too soon to say which one is right. This is a threat in the Caribbean, less clear it can impact the continental US, though I’d watch the troughing in the east at the end of October. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98): A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph north and east of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands beginning later today and continuing through Monday morning. By the middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while the system slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

Well the Euro would be an all timer. Drought bustah.

I don’t track winter particularly closely until I need to but I’m actually cautiously optimistic. Just not sure it’s another cool one—though things look pretty similar to last year at this time.

I’m not sure it’s a true warm bias as much as there have been some absolute blowtorches in parts of the CONUS the last decade or so, and those are hard to pin down when ENSO seems to have a more muted impact? That said, the easiest call in wx seems to be winter warmth. I mean based on that graphic the last “cool” winter prior to last season was 2014-15. Ugly.

A friend said they have family members in central NH that had to dig 50ft deeper to get water into their well.

I don’t post in here (I’m really just discovering this awesome thread!) but yeah, the Great Blizzard of 2013 earns its name. 1888, 1978, (October) 2011, and 2013 stand alone in meteorological exceptionalism and societal impact in CT.

Not looking for anything in particular. I was trying to find it in the NOW data for a friend but didn’t see the station.

Meanwhile I hit 30° twice this month

It has been a truly exceptional period in the Gulf in terms of activity. It’s good to that conditions seem to have allowed a break, this final AEW pending.

@dendrite was there a Plymouth NH ASOS that was discontinued?

Gotta start somewhere

I thought slightly AN. Too bullish on the peak, but nailed the big lull and when the tropics would heat up. It was a pretty big comeback but this season never had the runway others did.

At the end of the day I think my peak season forecast will be ok, but some underperformances really hurt me near the end. That’s how it goes. It’s still disappointing. Was surprised there was no major threat. If not for Humberto, Imelda would’ve been a hit in the Carolinas. Yes, SSTs and OHC are only part of the equation.

Getting back in the gym.

At least it's a more active pattern moving forward.

Probably comes about too late for my peak season forecast

@MillvilleWx

What an insane storm.

Y'all the GFS does this every year. If a wave can make it to the Caribbean then we can talk. Despite incredibly favorable conditions for much of the season, the Caribbean has been devoid of meaningful activity.

What’s the biggest wind event you’ve had there?

Just looked into that more for the first time, and man, what a beast. The wind gusts were legit. I miss the days of the big dogs.

Didn’t impact me but the one big fire hose I remember was like a week after the Great Blizzard of 2013. I think @ORH_wxman and points east got smoked.

Very interesting end to the season with the most recent focus of TC genesis on Karen/Lorenzo. The next wave is one to watch as it’s a true low rider. Not sure it’ll develop in time for my peak season forecast but we’ll see. Could be an issue in the Caribbean long term. Meanwhile models are a touch split on whether Lorenzo survives or quickly dissipates.

Lorenzo is here. Tropical Atlantic producing more than the climo favored areas Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (7) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo

Updated the title as this never gained any subtropical characteristics