Ellinwood

Got 6" of snow in Germantown, MD before changing over to sleet around 8:45am... about 1-2" less than I wanted to see before the changeover across the region. Snowblower doesn't get used often but am glad I have it. Looking for 1-2" of sleet through this afternoon now. 14F and sleet is silly

Been a minute since I semi-regularly lurked a storm thread (mostly because our winters have been junk with respect to snow). Glad to see the forum hasn't changed

Made more significant adjustments in the mountains and pulled back totals around the coast and the DMV region a little. Gonna be interesting to see how quickly things change over to sleet, but we all know that leaning earlier vs later is the way to go 90% of the time.

Mostly good ratios and strong cold air that we haven't seen ahead of a storm like this in quite some time. Sorry for being vague but I've never been one to write it all out since I'm usually too tired or burned out from work to write it.

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

Had a little RASN in the morning and 10 minutes of flurries in the afternoon. Would rather have 0" than 1" of bs that I have to shovel with the cold coming in. Got 0.5" yesterday at least, before it all melted.

Can't write "what went wrong" until the storm's over Also it's not more of a "what went wrong" as it is uncertainty in the forecast and forecasters choosing which way they wanted to go. If nearly every model shows one solution and then that doesn't even come close to reality, that's when I look into it more.

Was hoping the models would bring the PM snow more in line with my track, but looking more like now this will be lower-end/under my forecast in the DMV region. I wasn't really relying on this morning's activity to do much south of the MD/PA border, but would have liked to see at least a coating IMBY by now instead of rain/mix.

Final map for Sunday... only notable change was to drag the 1-2" contour southward into the Raleigh metro region. Richmond northward is essentially the same as the initial forecast with just a few very minor adjustments.

First crack at Sunday... went pretty aggressive with a strong lean on the Euro+GFS AI guidance given how crazy consistent they've been with the track+QPF, with much less consistency among the traditional models. Southern and eastern areas dealing with some surface temp issues while western edge could change drastically if the system ends up weaker/more progressive than my forecast. Lower than normal confidence with this map.

I'm on board for today... think tornado potential is decent up to the MD/PA border.

Snow forecast for February 11-12... lots of uncertainties with precip types on the south end and QPF amounts on the north end, and some areas could suffer rate issues during the afternoon. As a result, forecast confidence isn't that great.

Final snow forecast for tomorrow. Good ratios where the snow can insta-stick mainly NW of I-95, with surface temp and snow rate concerns on the south side of the accumulations (especially during daylight hours).

Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track.

Final forecast as I will be too busy to work on it tomorrow. Shifted everything a bit south overall, especially east of the Appalachians. Still not buying huge snow totals on the south side given the mixing issues.