hudsonvalley21

0.36 in the Davis so far today up this way. Nice AFD from Upton, a section below; Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warm front in close proximity to the NYC metro and this will be key this afternoon as a frontal wave approaches from the west. The 06Z NAM NEST and latest HRRR continue to keep showers across the area for much of the day with the potential for strong/severe convection around the NYC/NJ metro in the 18Z to 22Z timeframe. Conditions are favorable at the very least for some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding (see below). Weak low pressure over central PA rides along the stationary front located near the NYC metro, and passes over the area this afternoon into this evening. Synoptic scale setup supports moderate to heavy rain, with H8 frontogenesis and weak elevated instability in the cool sector north of the front across the interior especially from the lower Hudson Valley into SW CT, an upper level jet streak over southern CT possibly enhancing lift, also via sfc-based instability in the warm sector or very close to NE NJ and the NYC metro area. With WSW mid level flow 35-40 kt a few storms from NYC metro south/west could produce strong to locally severe wind gusts, as well as produce locally heavy rain as PW increases to near 2 inches. Some CAM`s and also the ECMWF are forecasting bands of heavy rain to the tune of 2-4 inches across the interior. Previous waves of low pressure have not lived up to model QPF expectations, so think this is overdone and have played the forecast more conservatively than otherwise might be the case for the time being. Given the more favorable larger scale factors coming into play this afternoon, this situation might be different, and it is still possible that a short fused flash flood watch may become necessary for parts of the area for this afternoon/evening.

Yup. We'll have to keep an eye out for descrete cells just in front of linear activity.

Light rain here for the last 1 1/2 hours. 0.12 in the bucket.

Nothing here yet a few rumbles and flashes to my west. Slow movers.

Happy birthday ! hope you have a great one.

DCA: +0.2 NYC: +0.3 BOS: -0.1 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +0.4 DEN: +0.2 PHX: -0.2 SEA: +0.2

Same here in Goshen, NY. No wind.

Ok thanks

That marine layer is really making an impact on the advancing clouds from Pa into central NJ http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/PSUGOES_PA2/loop30v.html

Wonder if outflow from the linear storms out in central Pa could nudge the boundary any further back east?

Hope all is ok

Upton 613 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will send a warm front across portions of the area this evening, then passes to the east late tonight followed by a cold frontal passage. Another wave of low pressure will track along the front on Wednesday, passing near or just south of the area Wednesday night. The boundary lingers south of the area into Thursday. A cold front then moves through the region Thursday night, with brief high pressure returning for Friday into Saturday. Another frontal system will move through on Sunday, followed by building high pressure into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Based on radar and stlt, the tstm risk has been slightly slowed. Otherwise, the fcst is on track. Warm front approaching from the southwest separates a moderately to highly unstable airmass to the west and a stable marine layer to the east. As low-level winds continue to veer to the south this evening and the warm front works into portions of the area, ingredients will be in place for the development of scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms. Latest HiRes guidance shows boundary setting up across NYC metro, Long Island, and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. This combined with 0-6 km deep-layered shear of 40-50kt and 0-3 SRH value around 400, supports rotating updrafts and strong mid-level mesos should convection be realized. The main threat will be damaging winds and large hail, but isolated tornadoes are a possibility, especially just west of the NYC metro where surface based instability will be highest. Of course, where the boundary resides this evening will be key player to where the damaging winds and tornados can be realized. As the cells propagate east, they will become elevated due to the marine layer. Large CAPES values out east and the maintenance of the low-level cold pool though could briefly scour out the marine layer even for areas just east of the NYC metro. Most likely timeframe for the convection is between 6-10 pm, with the Lower Hudson Valley and interior northern NJ on the earlier side of that range. Convection looks to initiate north and west of the area in association with the boundary across the NY/PA border, then drops south and east of Long Island toward midnight. Localized heavy rainfall is likely with the strongest activity, but a WNW storm motion in excess of 30 kt should limit the flash flood threat. Cold front passes through by daybreak with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, slightly above normal. There is moderate risk for rip currents at the Atlantic beaches this evening, except for high across the beaches from Nassau west due to moderate S/SE winds and building waves.

Activity beginning to develop along the Pa/NY state line just to the west of KGBM. We'll see if it can survive.

61/61 here with a low cloud deck

The vis loop a couple of posts up show the lower level pushing due north instead of northwest, wonder if that will keep the marine layer from pushing as far inland.

Mesoscale Discussion 0762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0824 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Areas affected...Parts of Upstate New York...central and eastern Pennsylvania...northwest New Jersey. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225... Valid 240124Z - 240330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms continue across parts of the northeast. While a threat for isolated severe hail/damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado persists in the near term, nocturnal stabilization is expected to limit the temporal extent of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters and occasional supercell structures have been observed across portions of eastern Upstate New York into central Pennsylvania over the past few hours, a few of which having a history of isolated damaging wind gusts. In addition, KCCX radar data has suggested that a few storms across south-central Pennsylvania may have produced severe hail, evident with MESH thresholds exceeding 1-2 inches in some cases. The boundary layer remains relatively warm and marginally unstable, particularly across central Pennsylvania, where the greatest potential for severe wind gusts/large hail exists in the short term. Kinematic fields also remain favorable to support short term threats of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado (particularly with the south-central Pennsylvania storms). However, nocturnal cooling will stratify the boundary layer, increasing inhibition and weakening storms within a few hours.

The

1.21 in the bucket yesterday and 0.20 so far today. Just for insults, last years high/low for this day Newburgh had 73/55. Currently 45 degrees.

Hopefully you will get a few hours between the areas of rain today. Enjoy!

Enjoy the weekend

Are you sure it's not Bud light? Oh well, rain hat looks good.

DCA: +1.3 101 NYC: +1.2 100 BOS: +0.7 96 ORD: +0.8 99 ATL: +1.9 99 IAH: +1.0 103 DEN: -0.1 100 PHX: +0.3 116 SEA: +0.7 94

I think we should hould see at least that. What's also interesting is the current activity that's off the NJ coast and south of LI. Seems to be holding together in the marine environment.

Just added another 0.20 in the bucket with the line of showers that moved thru. Total of 0.71 since midnight.