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hudsonvalley21

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Everything posted by hudsonvalley21

  1. General model consensus. Watches were posted up with basically 48 hours to start time.
  2. That’s it, I’m moving to Poughkeepsie.
  3. Hopefully the wife is ok. I also worked on pushing some snow back in spots and worked on the gutters with the warm weather today.
  4. 28/28 here with the cloud deck lowering. Occasional freezing mist.
  5. Roads in my area aren’t bad now as they are being treated. When the precipitation increases later it will wash off the salt and with the cold ground temps along with air temps in the upper 20’s that’s not a good recipe for travel later, especially bridges and overpasses.
  6. Currently 26/22 The CAD could be tough to scour out in the valleys in the hilly areas inland.
  7. agree, also a lot of players on the field in this active pattern. Nothing is a lock in this period of time. It could come down to now casting for Thursday.
  8. If the temps were in the lower to mid 20’s and held steady it would make a great factor in ice accumulation. Point and click forecast for me is a high of 28 tomorrow and temps rising slightly Monday night into Tuesday.
  9. They do have a history of being conservative at times. In their defense, our forecast area has such a variable and challenging forecast by location. I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes.
  10. National Weather Service New York NY 332 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 NJZ002-NYZ067-150445- /O.NEW.KOKX.IS.W.0001.210215T2300Z-210216T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.210215T1200Z-210215T2300Z/ Western Passaic-Orange- 332 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Ice Storm Warning, significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up to a half an inch. For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, Orange County. * WHEN...For the Ice Storm Warning, from 6 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes.
  11. Usually in an obs thread mapping is seldom used, its basically now casting. You can compare the short term models such as the HRRR and the NAM.
  12. Constantly changing model runs for the last few days. Forecasting is basically going down to now casting, or at least it appears that way.
  13. Same here with the period of light snow. Was not forecasted. 26/25
  14. Wouldn’t mind seeing some rain Tuesday to reduce the ice damming in gutters up this way. Then let’s add to the snowpack on Thursday
  15. Is it just the surface temps? Wonder if the mid-levels have also trended cooler?
  16. I gave gutter deicers and roof racked about 1 foot back. The deicers had a tough time keeping up. Chopped ice for about 4 hours today. Hope the 18z porn maps don’t come to fruition for the next 2 weeks.
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