hudsonvalley21

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength. Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150 miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.

I’ll drink to that

Going to feel like tracking a winter costal system the next few days

That cone might have to be moved west a touch

Upton’s HWO Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 404 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-182015- Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Southern Queens- 404 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall from the remnants of Fred may bring localized flash flooding Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An isolated tornado is also possible.

Same here for the high at 91. The nearby thunderstorms and cloud cover held the temp which was a nice relief. Currently 80/72 here. Enjoy OBX hopefully Fred won’t bother you much down there.

Had a cell hit here with a quick 0.66 a couple of hours ago. Rain rate of 6.19 in the Davis. High temp of 90 today with a heat index of 101. Forecast high of 97 tomorrow and heat index of 107.

Was driving on the garden state parkway and seen it too. Had white knuckles from driving thru that storm. No wind, just torrential rain and one heck of a cloud to ground light show.

Driving back from Sandy Hook yesterday around 6pm ran into the thunderstorm around the South Amboy area. Nice shelf cloud and torrential rains with some cloud to ground lightning.

0.13 here, had to give the plants a little water. 82/75 currently with mostly sunny skies.

Oh the good old days,

It was a nice day today heat wise here near KSWF with a high of 81 and a dewpt. in the mid to upper 60’s under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies to what’s coming in the next days. The water and electric meters will be getting a definite workout. Planning on going to Sandy Hook Tuesday, I think it’s a good call to catch a sea breeze there. OKX’s extended AFD below, .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over the western Atlantic will result in a typical summertime airmass with increasingly hot and humid conditions. This comes from a continuous south to southwest flow that will be in place as a result of the region being on the western periphery of surface high pressure that will be anchored out in the Western Atlantic. With respect to temperatures, which will be the main highlight for the week, continued to run with the, NBM 50th percentile which continued to be slightly warmer than other guidance sources. Models are showing a consensus of warming 850mb temperatures to 16 to 18 degrees C Tuesday through Thursday. With temperatures rising well into the 80s and low to mid 90s, coupled with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s, heat indices should warm into the mid 90s to lower 100s, with the warmest day on Thursday. For now, Friday should be slightly cooler, but still warm with heat index values in the 90s. As we typically see here in our area, the highest temperatures and heat indices will occur in the NYC Metro, urban Northeast NJ corridor extending into Nassau and southern parts of Lower Hudson Valley into SW CT. For now, it appears the best days for any potential heat advisory criteria to be met would be Tuesday through Thursday, and potentially Friday. There will be a chance each afternoon for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon as daytime surface troughs development. Chances each afternoon will gradually increase through the week. A cold front approaches late in the work week into the first half of the weekend.

And a few more could be added starting in a few days and possibly lasting till mid month.

Hopefully she doesn’t come and lick you after eating #6 all the others are good.

From the KBGM area, Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 927 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 NYZ024-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072-300215- Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Sullivan-Delaware-Southern Wayne-Wyoming-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Bradford-Lackawanna-Pike- 927 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BROOME... SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN CHEMUNG...SOUTHWESTERN TIOGA... SULLIVAN...SUSQUEHANNA...NORTHEASTERN LACKAWANNA...WAYNE... NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD...NORTH CENTRAL PIKE AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES... At 926 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Roscoe to near Montrose to near Pine City. Movement was southeast at 45 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Rockland, Chemung, Elmira, Fallsburg, Southport, Carbondale, Monticello, Sayre, Honesdale and Waverly.

And the front has a line on it from KALB and thru KBGM. Let’s see if it holds together for later on.

0.28 here.

DCA: +0.5 NYC: +0.9 BOS: +0.4 ORD: -0.7 ATL: -0.5 IAH: -0.2 DEN: +1.6 PHX: +0.7 SEA: +1.2

We know that some kind of watch was going up. I’m surprised that they put it up without a Meso Discussion first. just had a quick 0.21 in a cell that popped up. Rain rate of 4.17.

Just had a light rain shower here. Cloud deck is low. 74/68

This decaying MCS has some thickness to it. A lot to burn off, not looking good for for severe up this way at this time.

Agree, I can see the moderate haze looking at Storm King Mtn. Looks actually a bit heavier than last week. KSWF reported a 5 mile visibility with haze for 6 consecutive hours today.

It pulsed down this way. Had .20 from a second hit. Total of .38

.38 here from 2 quick hitters

A surprise pop up Flood Advisory National Weather Service New York NY 556 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 NYC071-252330- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0078.210725T2156Z-210725T2330Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Orange NY- 556 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for... Northeastern Orange County in southeastern New York... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 556 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Walden, Gardnertown, Montgomery, Scotchtown, Orange Lake, Washingtonville, Maybrook, Pine Bush, Circleville and Bullville. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 543 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 NYZ067-068-252230- Putnam-Orange- 543 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 ...A CLUISTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND WESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES... At 542 PM EDT, an area of thunderstorms located near Montgomery, or near Walden, moving east at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Newburgh, Walden, West Point, Cold Spring, New Windsor, Gardnertown, Montgomery, Woodbury, Orange Lake, Washingtonville, Firthcliffe, Highland Falls, Vails Gate, Balmville and Cornwall On Hudson.