hudsonvalley21

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri earlier this afternoon and found maximum flight-level winds and SFMR values to support an intensity of about 55 kt and a minimum pressure of 997 mb. The storm's appearance in satellite images has been generally steady throughout the day with the low-level center located on the northern side of the convective mass, and banding features confined to the south side of the circulation. This somewhat asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly shear. The tropical storm is now moving due westward at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge should keep Henri on a westward to west-northwestward track through tonight. On Friday, however, a trough is expected to cut off over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a ridge amplifies to the east of Henri over the western Atlantic. A combination of these features should cause Henri to turn northward on Friday and accelerate in that direction over the weekend. The exact location of the northward turn will be very critical in determining Henri's future track and how close it gets to New England. The latest GFS run has shifted eastward and the UKMET and ECMWF have shifted westward. Consequently, the net result is very little change in the consensus models and the new NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one. Based on this forecast, Henri is expected to be very near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will be flying around Henri this evening to help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models more accurately predict the future track of the storm. Although Henri is a bit weaker now, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not changed. The shear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength seems likely during that time period. However, the global models show a more conducive upper-level wind pattern over Henri shortly after that, and in fact, all of the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, steady intensification is expected during the 24-60 h time period, and Henri is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. Henri is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move over much cooler SSTs on Sunday, and that should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a steady weakening trend from days 3 to 5. Post-tropical transition is now shown to occur by the end of the forecast period when Henri is expected to be over SSTs below 20 deg C. It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of this area early Friday. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into Monday.

Just like the winter storm modes and the radio shows.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength. Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150 miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.

I’ll drink to that

Going to feel like tracking a winter costal system the next few days

That cone might have to be moved west a touch

Upton’s HWO Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 404 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-182015- Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Southern Queens- 404 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall from the remnants of Fred may bring localized flash flooding Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An isolated tornado is also possible.

Same here for the high at 91. The nearby thunderstorms and cloud cover held the temp which was a nice relief. Currently 80/72 here. Enjoy OBX hopefully Fred won’t bother you much down there.

Had a cell hit here with a quick 0.66 a couple of hours ago. Rain rate of 6.19 in the Davis. High temp of 90 today with a heat index of 101. Forecast high of 97 tomorrow and heat index of 107.

Was driving on the garden state parkway and seen it too. Had white knuckles from driving thru that storm. No wind, just torrential rain and one heck of a cloud to ground light show.

Driving back from Sandy Hook yesterday around 6pm ran into the thunderstorm around the South Amboy area. Nice shelf cloud and torrential rains with some cloud to ground lightning.

0.13 here, had to give the plants a little water. 82/75 currently with mostly sunny skies.

Oh the good old days,

It was a nice day today heat wise here near KSWF with a high of 81 and a dewpt. in the mid to upper 60’s under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies to what’s coming in the next days. The water and electric meters will be getting a definite workout. Planning on going to Sandy Hook Tuesday, I think it’s a good call to catch a sea breeze there. OKX’s extended AFD below, .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over the western Atlantic will result in a typical summertime airmass with increasingly hot and humid conditions. This comes from a continuous south to southwest flow that will be in place as a result of the region being on the western periphery of surface high pressure that will be anchored out in the Western Atlantic. With respect to temperatures, which will be the main highlight for the week, continued to run with the, NBM 50th percentile which continued to be slightly warmer than other guidance sources. Models are showing a consensus of warming 850mb temperatures to 16 to 18 degrees C Tuesday through Thursday. With temperatures rising well into the 80s and low to mid 90s, coupled with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s, heat indices should warm into the mid 90s to lower 100s, with the warmest day on Thursday. For now, Friday should be slightly cooler, but still warm with heat index values in the 90s. As we typically see here in our area, the highest temperatures and heat indices will occur in the NYC Metro, urban Northeast NJ corridor extending into Nassau and southern parts of Lower Hudson Valley into SW CT. For now, it appears the best days for any potential heat advisory criteria to be met would be Tuesday through Thursday, and potentially Friday. There will be a chance each afternoon for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon as daytime surface troughs development. Chances each afternoon will gradually increase through the week. A cold front approaches late in the work week into the first half of the weekend.

And a few more could be added starting in a few days and possibly lasting till mid month.

Hopefully she doesn’t come and lick you after eating #6 all the others are good.

From the KBGM area, Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 927 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 NYZ024-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072-300215- Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Sullivan-Delaware-Southern Wayne-Wyoming-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Bradford-Lackawanna-Pike- 927 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BROOME... SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN CHEMUNG...SOUTHWESTERN TIOGA... SULLIVAN...SUSQUEHANNA...NORTHEASTERN LACKAWANNA...WAYNE... NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD...NORTH CENTRAL PIKE AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES... At 926 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Roscoe to near Montrose to near Pine City. Movement was southeast at 45 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Rockland, Chemung, Elmira, Fallsburg, Southport, Carbondale, Monticello, Sayre, Honesdale and Waverly.

And the front has a line on it from KALB and thru KBGM. Let’s see if it holds together for later on.

0.28 here.

DCA: +0.5 NYC: +0.9 BOS: +0.4 ORD: -0.7 ATL: -0.5 IAH: -0.2 DEN: +1.6 PHX: +0.7 SEA: +1.2

We know that some kind of watch was going up. I’m surprised that they put it up without a Meso Discussion first. just had a quick 0.21 in a cell that popped up. Rain rate of 4.17.

Just had a light rain shower here. Cloud deck is low. 74/68

This decaying MCS has some thickness to it. A lot to burn off, not looking good for for severe up this way at this time.

Agree, I can see the moderate haze looking at Storm King Mtn. Looks actually a bit heavier than last week. KSWF reported a 5 mile visibility with haze for 6 consecutive hours today.

It pulsed down this way. Had .20 from a second hit. Total of .38