hudsonvalley21

That deathband that has set up east to west along the NY/NJ border and lower westchester is causing some mayhem down in your area. Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service New York NY 451 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey... Northern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey... Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey... Bronx County in southeastern New York... New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York... Southeastern Orange County in southeastern New York... Rockland County in southeastern New York... Southern Westchester County in southeastern New York... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 451 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

0.91 in the bucket so far.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Henri will track northwest into southern New England Sunday into Sunday night, shifting the heavy rain into southwest Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley during through Monday. A widespread rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is possible as Henri losses forward speed as it begins to be absorbed into the upper level trough. Upper level southerly jet extending south of the region into the Atlantic will help provide a tropical rich moisture source with layer precipitable waters remaining near 2 inches tonight into early Monday. The flood watch for the entire region has been extended in time until 8 PM EDT Monday night to cover the lingering rainfall into Monday as well as residual runoff and river flooding anticipated. The day 2 outlook for WPC has the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. The potential is there for long fused minor river flooding for down stream rivers such as the Passaic, Saddle, and Housatonic Rivers. This situation will have to be monitored throughout the day Monday for updates as much is dependent on the exact location of heaviest rainfall.

Could have some serious flooding issues in our neck of the woods later.

Thanks Walt us inland folks could have some serious flooding issues here later.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Henri will track northwest into southern New England Sunday into Sunday night, shifting the heavy rain into southwest Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley during through Monday. A widespread rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is possible as Henri losses forward speed as it begins to be absorbed into the upper level trough. Upper level southerly jet extending south of the region into the Atlantic will help provide a tropical rich moisture source with layer precipitable waters remaining near 2 inches tonight into early Monday. The flood watch for the entire region has been extended in time until 8 PM EDT Monday night to cover the lingering rainfall into Monday as well as residual runoff and river flooding anticipated. The day 2 outlook for WPC has the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. The potential is there for long fused minor river flooding for down stream rivers such as the Passaic, Saddle, and Housatonic Rivers. This situation will have to be monitored throughout the day Monday for updates as much is dependent on the exact location of heaviest rainfall.

Don’t mean to split hairs, the euro QPF map’s bullseye is around Stamford, Ny, that is in Delaware county and in the Catskills.

Still a few runs to go. That QPF map will fluctuate with location and amounts.

Totally agree

Recent euro run was spitting out about a foot of rain in the Catskills area. Definitely a catastrophic flooding possibility. Plus recent rains from Fred’s passing thru has the ground loaded with moisture already.

Agree. Also rains from Fred has the ground saturated in spots. Areas along the Delaware River would have some catastrophic flooding with that much QPF.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri this morning and based on the flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data, the initial intensity is still around 55 kt. The minimum pressure has also been relatively steady. The low-level center of Henri is located close to the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection, and the vortex is still not vertically aligned due to 20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Although the intensity of Henri has not changed much during the past couple of days, satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well- established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate that Henri is poised to strengthen. There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HENRI STEADY IN STRENGTH... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 73.7W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been extended slightly westward to Flushing, New York, including adjacent areas of western Long Island Sound and the East River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk * Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk * New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York * West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York * West of New Haven Connecticut

Similar to the 06z NAM

06z NAM has it coming on land in central/western LI and spinning up into the Hudson valley

Basically drifting/retrograding somewhat.

Upton has put out a Tropical Storm Henri Storm Briefing at 7pm.

Agree, especially with the costal area’s population at this time of year.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri earlier this afternoon and found maximum flight-level winds and SFMR values to support an intensity of about 55 kt and a minimum pressure of 997 mb. The storm's appearance in satellite images has been generally steady throughout the day with the low-level center located on the northern side of the convective mass, and banding features confined to the south side of the circulation. This somewhat asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly shear. The tropical storm is now moving due westward at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge should keep Henri on a westward to west-northwestward track through tonight. On Friday, however, a trough is expected to cut off over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a ridge amplifies to the east of Henri over the western Atlantic. A combination of these features should cause Henri to turn northward on Friday and accelerate in that direction over the weekend. The exact location of the northward turn will be very critical in determining Henri's future track and how close it gets to New England. The latest GFS run has shifted eastward and the UKMET and ECMWF have shifted westward. Consequently, the net result is very little change in the consensus models and the new NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one. Based on this forecast, Henri is expected to be very near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will be flying around Henri this evening to help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models more accurately predict the future track of the storm. Although Henri is a bit weaker now, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not changed. The shear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength seems likely during that time period. However, the global models show a more conducive upper-level wind pattern over Henri shortly after that, and in fact, all of the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, steady intensification is expected during the 24-60 h time period, and Henri is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. Henri is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move over much cooler SSTs on Sunday, and that should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a steady weakening trend from days 3 to 5. Post-tropical transition is now shown to occur by the end of the forecast period when Henri is expected to be over SSTs below 20 deg C. It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of this area early Friday. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into Monday.

Just like the winter storm modes and the radio shows.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength. Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150 miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.

I’ll drink to that

Going to feel like tracking a winter costal system the next few days

That cone might have to be moved west a touch