hudsonvalley21

WPC’s 7 day QPF map might have to be adjusted upwards.

Can we make it 4 days in a row? Mesoscale Discussion 1215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021 Areas affected...portions of southeast New York into eastern Pennsylvania...far northeast Maryland...western New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092035Z - 092230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat continues to increase across portions of the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. Damaging gusts remain the primary threat with the stronger, longer-lived storms. Conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters, evident via MRMS mosaic radar imagery, have demonstrated small, bow-type structures over the past hour or so, with some damaging gusts reported. These storms are progressing in an environment characterized by widespread, poor mid-level lapse rates, but with 7+ C/km 0-3km lapse rates (evident via 20Z mesoanalysis and 19Z RAP forecast soundings). The aforementioned low-level lapse rates atop upper 60s to 70 F surface dewpoints are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kt effective bulk shear. These bulk shear vectors are oriented roughly perpendicular to the smaller linear segments. As such, storms are expected to continue supporting damaging gust potential through the remainder of the diurnal heating cycle. It is unclear how widespread the damaging gust threat will be through the remainder of the afternoon. Conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance should it become evident that more widespread damaging gusts will become likely. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

1.19 in the bucket for the day as of 10:30 pm.

Looks like to be moving right along the forecast track, maybe a tick east.

Mesoscale Discussion 1208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Areas affected...Chesapeake Bay Vicinity Concerning...Tornado Watch 350... Valid 090201Z - 090300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues. SUMMARY...A marginal threat for a brief tornado may continue along the immediate Atlantic coast beyond the expiration of Tornado Watch 350. No additional WW is expected this evening. DISCUSSION...The strongest convection in WW 350 has continued to move offshore in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. Farther inland, there has been little notable low-level rotation on regional radar imagery. As tropical storm Elsa continues northeast this evening, an isolated stronger convective cell could develop along the gulf stream and move inland. While low-level winds could still support a brief tornado, the unfavorable low-level thermodynamic environment -- especially inland of the immediate coast -- suggests that this threat will be marginal. No additional watches are anticipated this evening.

Not that I can remember for the severe thunderstorm watch. 0.57 in the bucket today so far. a section from today’s outlook from the SPC Northeast States... Clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing at midday across the region, particularly across far southeast New York into western New England. More considerable cloud cover is also generally prevalent across the region as compared to prior days. More appreciable destabilization will tend to remain confined to the Chesapeake/DE Bays towards the New York City tri-state area, where some cloud breaks are noted within morning visible satellite imagery. Although the degree of destabilization is a bit uncertain, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the region with thunderstorm wind damage as the primary severe risk. Areas such as northeast PA/northern NJ into southern NY/NYC Metro and southern New England will continue to be reevaluated and monitored for a somewhat greater severe risk later today, which could include potential for some transient supercells

SPC AC 081819 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z Northeast States... Clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing at midday across the region, particularly across far southeast New York into western New England. More considerable cloud cover is also generally prevalent across the region as compared to prior days. More appreciable destabilization will tend to remain confined to the Chesapeake/DE Bays towards the New York City tri-state area, where some cloud breaks are noted within morning visible satellite imagery. Although the degree of destabilization is a bit uncertain, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the region with thunderstorm wind damage as the primary severe risk. Areas such as northeast PA/northern NJ into southern NY/NYC Metro and southern New England will continue to be reevaluated and monitored for a somewhat greater severe risk later today, which could include potential for some transient supercells

Same here from the overnight 0.03. Some loud thunder but that was basically it.

Could be on the menu. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...Portions of the Northeast/southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by Thursday afternoon in a weakly capped environment across eastern PA and NJ, and also potentially along a warm front into portions of southern New England. Modestly enhanced southwesterly midlevel flow may support some organized clusters capable of producing locally damaging wind. A supercell or two cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the warm front, which would pose a threat of a tornado or two in addition the damaging wind potential.

Mesoscale Discussion 1180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Areas affected...Northeast PA...southeast NY...southern VT...MA...CT...RI...northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071750Z - 071945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon and be capable of damaging downburst winds and isolated instances of large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed prior to 1830z. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis showed a stationary front extending from near the MA/NH border west to near the eastern tip of Lake Erie. Strong diabatic heating of a very moist (upper 60s-lower 70s surface dew points) air mass continues south of the front, contributing to MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg. The discussion area is on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerly flow, and this will contribute to effective shear values ranging from 25-35 kts. Largely southwest/west flow in the low-mid levels will support multicells and clusters as the primary modes. Steep low-level lapse rates and a very moist environment will support damaging downburst winds as the primary hazard, especially as storm coverage/clustering increases later this afternoon. A few instances of large hail will be possible, especially with the strongest multicell updrafts. Convective trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely prior to 1830z. ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/07/2021

Ouch, bad day without a/c. Hopefully everyone gets power back soon.

I had dozens of Japanese beetles drowned in my pool each day the last two days. Dodged the heavy thunderstorms yesterday and had 0.18 in the bucket for the day.

In addition, the park rangers will ticket you. They also pose as regular people in canoes in their stealth mode.

Enjoy!

0.63 in the bucket so far today. Appears that we might get some more. Most of the below is moving to the n/ne. Screenshot at 8:00 pm.

DCA: +2.2 NYC: +1.7 BOS: +1.9 ORD: +1.3 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +0.2 DEN: +1.4 PHX: +1.3 SEA: +1.4

I was near KSWF about 30 minutes ago and had winds around 40 from the outflow with the stronger cell to the north. looks like a line trying to form currently. Severe Thunderstorm Warning NYC071-010000- /O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0028.210630T2312Z-210701T0000Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service New York NY 712 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Orange County in southeastern New York... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 712 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Montgomery, or near Walden, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Montgomery around 715 PM EDT. Walden around 725 PM EDT. New Windsor and Gardnertown around 730 PM EDT. Newburgh around 735 PM EDT.

I think it’s an a/c night.

90 for the high here today. Point and click forecast has 95 for the high tomorrow with a heat index of 104.

90 for the high here today. Point and click forecast has 95 for the high tomorrow with a heat index of 104.

0.17 here with the line. Nothing severe.

We’ll see

Mesoscale Discussion 1056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Areas affected...central and eastern New York into northeast Pennsylvania and far northern New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...303... Valid 212250Z - 212345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300, 303 continues. SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms with a history of severe gusts and wind damage will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two this evening. Additional storm development/consolidation across southern New York and northeast Pennsylvania will pose a risk for damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Ahead of the cold front moving across western New York, a line of thunderstorms near Syracuse has produced a measured severe gust and numerous reports of wind damage over the last hour. Radar data shows a well developed comma head/bowing segment developing east of the KTYX radar. Damaging winds will be likely with this cluster of thunderstorms as they track to the east northeast over the next couple of hours. Regional VWP data also suggests some mesovortex tornado threat may evolve with 0-1km SRH around 100 ms/s2 and 0-3km line normal shear around 30 kts. Some weakening of this portions of the line may occur closer to the border with Vermont as downstream convection has resulted in some airmass modification. Until then, a corridor of greater severe potential will likely evolve. To the south across portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, several clusters of developing thunderstorms were noted along a line from Binghamton to Allentown. Additional storm development should consolidate into a linear mode with the potential for increasing damaging wind threat as storms track through northern New Jersey and southern New York this evening.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO VERMONT.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into northern New England, capable of damaging gusts, sporadic severe hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Northeast States... Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough digging across the Great Lakes region, with the associated cold front sweeping across southeast Ontario and OH. Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates shown on 12z raobs and model forecast soundings will yield a moderately unstable air mass by early afternoon (MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg). It appears thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon along the front - and in the free warm sector to the east. Vertical shear will be sufficient for a mix of multicell and occasional supercell structures, capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low level shear is strongest over Quebec, but may be sufficient over parts of VT/NY for an isolated tornado or two as well. Activity will sweep eastward across the ENH risk area through the early evening, before weakening as it approaches cooler marine-influenced air mass over eastern New England and NJ.