DDweatherman

Good to see your ability to analyze a model has improved. It's best to just not analyze the LR NAM, if we took that approach, you could have saved some face there. Short Pump jackpot.

It sure is, just 15 mins from me. Lots of good food and good beverages.

The ole EE rule better not come to fruition. Let’s hope it’s as wrong as the NAM normally is at these lead times.

As long as it’s wrong, let’s not forget for folks even close in to 95, there are several models that do have a lot better outcome than the Euro. Small pieces of the puzzle in evolution will have big impacts. Little bit of a model war could be breaking out with how these pieces are handled.

Not so sure I think the evolution up top given what we had that first 60 or so hours is going to go that way. I didn’t hate how it started but then divergence from the other model camp came post h60.

It’s only ever right when it’s by itself when it shows a bad solution. It doesn’t agree with the consensus of other models, but it isn’t what we wanted to see…

How fitting for 0z to crush on all major models for 6z to be our good ole fashioned Charlie Brown and be warmer, dryer, and norther.

Looking forward to an ICON warning shortly as well.

We basically have bingo in a few places already, one spot away in a few of these. Who knew this card was the most accurate piece of history here.

It's a double edged sword for sure, and depends on location (as always). For areas at the M/D like PSU & myself, we can have a more amped up solution, even with a primary getting up into the OV that is a QPF bomb (0z GFS like evolution & totals). We need the N/S interaction everywhere however for what he said re: tying in the colder air with that phased interaction. I traditionally don't love the weakened systems, but a SS wave is going to have the juice even as a bit de-amped system. We'll definitely learn one way or another the next few hours what is still on the table as we get into the true mid range 4D leads today. These past few systems have been modeled well and consistently, and this is one we'd like to see the consistency stick. We'd take almost all current op solutions minus the GEM.

That's not a trend we'd want to start seeing, as many of you know.

6z EPS images anyone? mobile at the moment

I’m thinking what you’re thinking. There is such a thing as too much of a good thing.

NAM’s pull the football from many folks, not surprised. What an epic snow drought we’re in. Can’t wait to watch through this winter to see how the niño fails to deliver.

What about the other NAM’s? the GFS? The Euro? All of those show a couple inches out our way. The FV3 is not operational, and may never be. It’s another piece of guidance, and it could be right…I’m just saying that there’s plenty of guidance that gives us accumulations.

Can confirm some light snow in Carroll Valley this morning

Can you guys relax it’s not a big deal. Everyone has an opinion. Just no non-practical Debbie downer or hypecaster actions Has to be backed up with the facts

This is definitely a post someone like Rich Foot from foots forecast would make.

I think for #2 you mean even further west? 8 LF's vs 4.

Usually when they RI this quickly pressure and winds aren't 100% aligned with what we see in classic "all-timers" with regards to intensity. Definitely could see this getting sub 920 or even 915 if even 25% of the rate of RI continued for another few hours. No signs of an ERC yet and makes sense since this is relatively early in its lifecycle and just became a tight core overnight last night. Can't rule out a record low pressure for this part of the ATL.

Just for everyones records who doesn't have time to check, lowest pressure in the Atlantic is Wilma @ 882mb (2005) and for sustained winds we had Allen @ 190mph (1980). Pressures in the southern gulf and central Caribbean historically have a lower mean/average pressure, hence why all the lowest #'s have come there (Wilma, Rita, Mitch, Gilbert) Edit to add that many which have gotten to cat 5 E & NE of the islands seem to be 910's range (Irma, Maria, Isabel, etc.)

Any guesses on where this one tops off folks? I'm thinking 175mph if I had to guess.

24 hour forecast now has Lee getting up to 165mph as it moves WNW.

Up to a 130mph Cat 4 as of 5PM ET.

I actually think based on T estimates and that wrapped ring, 160mph may be conservative for what Jova is doing right now, might be a 175mph storm