DDweatherman
-
Posts
5,275 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by DDweatherman
-
Because they show snowy solutions sometimes obviously… we like those
-
No mix here and snow coming down, 28 degrees. Right on the M/D line near Emmitsburg.
-
Snow underway here in Carroll Valley, 28 degrees. Not mixing at the moment
-
Still 27/21 here in Carroll Valley. Not too bad in the T/DP department
-
The NAM is the worst model for QPF output and evolution of any that exist, it only really can be reliable for thermals and MOS type guidance on temps
-
of course HRRR 12z after shutting people down for the day 24hrs
-
okay, now ya can post it haha temps are dropping fast over here. Down to 30/19
-
well we don't know yet but the only one thats been rock solid consistent is our noble rgem. Let's just let that be right
-
Yeah, don't you dare say that is what some people are thinking.
-
You will also do quite well at your 750 ft elevation. I'm about 860ft here in Carroll Valley.
-
That's why i shared this GIF in our PA thread, trend to boost QPF is absolutely what we want & need to see.
-
Sure, I understand. For "us" its actually heavier on the totals, but as you get into york, there's that sharp cutoff, I agree. Weird as I just dug deeper into the soundings and the layers are cooler aloft a bit. Seems it could be an algorithm thing. You can't hate seeing the QPF tick up over an inch solidly on 18z coming in hot & heavy.
-
To continue with image files, best part about GFS is the heaviness of the QPF/rates. Heres the trend last 3 runs, ticking upward, 1" QPF 81 & east.
-
Also want to show this nice dew point depression leading in, going to be helpful for wetbulbing down to a more favorable temp at onset.
-
Eh, here's our sounding though for the second frame of heavy stuff. With the rates we have, its definitely a snow sounding. Isothermal.
-
@mitchnick I'm mobile ATM, but someone post the RGEM. It came nicely SE and we are in the bullseye through the southern counties corridor @ about 10"
-
A lot of times the temp will creep back up slightly once the cloud deck moves in. The dews staying down are pretty key.
-
You know the rules, lower grass = optics that there is more snow out there...
-
I guess I missed some deleted posts that have ensued today Where's Chris been? Haven't seen him on the threads this winter yet.
-
Yep, I did see that, versus basically a forecast of rain/some mix.
-
Checked a low of the locations in NW AR, a few that are 32-34 with snow & mix were forecasted for 38-39 and rain. Radar is juicy here early on. Nice plume of GoM moisture.
-
Just my opinion, having been in the MA thread for years before moving to Carroll Valley, ERS might be in my regards one of the more pessimistic and less credible red taggers in that forum. Not to incite gossip but there was a time 2-3 years ago where when his name popped up a lot of folks in there would prepare themselves for what they were gonna read next.
-
You know the drill, those on the all snow side but close to the R/S line will get hit hardest with that thump and rates.
-
It's actually a pretty hefty thump and surface temps are slightly colder in the heavy frames (not surprised, driven by rates)
-
I’m hoping that LP prolly is wrong, it would be a busy to a lot of the models even from 12 hours ago and prior that didn’t have that evolution.
